This section analyzes the import and export situation of  maize, rice, wheat, and soybean in the first three quarters of 2019 in China.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the total imports of rice in China were 1.7288 million tons, a decrease of 22.8% compared to the previous year. The imported rice mainly stems from Thailand, Pakistan,Vietnam and Myanmar, respectively accounting for 25.1%、25.0%、21.9% and 15.2% of imports. The expenditure for rice import was US$889 million. Total rice exports over the period were 2,153,700 tons, an increase of 58.5% compared to the last year, mainly exported to Egypt, Côte d'Ivoire and Turkey (accounting for 20.7%, 13.0% and 9.9%, respectively). The value of the exports was US$813 million.

In the first three quarters of 2019, Chinese wheat imports totaled 2.2603 million tons, down by 9.7% year-on-year. The main sources include Canada (64.4%), Kazakhstan (14.2%), and France (5.8%). Imports amounted to US$664 million. Wheat exports (225,100 tons), up 3.8% compared to the last year, went mainly to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (71.0%), Hong Kong (22.4%) and Ethiopia (3.3%). The generated income was US$89 million. 

Maize imports reached 3,867,400 tons, an increase of 33.1% over 2018. The main suppliers were Ukraine, the United States, Myanmar and Russia, accounting for 90.9%、5.1%、2.2% and 1.1% of imports respectively. Imports amounted to US$843 million. Maize exports (15,400 tons), went mainly to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (88.3%), Hong Kong (7.1%) and Ethiopia(3.2%). The generated income for Maize export was US$4.2177 million.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the total imports of soybean in China were down 7.8% to 64,582,700 tons. Brazil, the United States and Argentina respectively contributed 70.0%, 16.0% and 7.9%, for a total value of US$2.5814 million. Soybean exports were 85,000 tons, down by 17.2%.

Trade prospects for major cereals and oil crop in China for 2019 

Based on the remote sensing data of grain crop monitoring in major countries in the world in 2019, according to the major impact of agriculture and policy simulation model, it is predicted that the import of major grain crop varieties will increase slightly in 2019. The details are as follows:

According to the result of the model, rice imports will increase by 3.1%, while exports will decrease by 4.6% in 2019. The supply and demand of the global rice market is basically balanced.The CIF price of international rice is lower than that of domestic rice, and the price gap is further expanding. It is expected that the rice import will maintain a slight increase in 2019.

According to the forecasts, wheat imports are projected to increase by 2.6%, while exports will decrease by 3.9%. It is expected that the global wheat output will increase steadily, the international wheat price will rise, the price gap between home and abroad will continue to narrow, and the wheat import is expected to increase slightly in 2019.

Maize imports are forecast to increase (+15.1%) in 2019, while exports should decrease 5.2%. Global maize production has increased slightly, inventory has been further reduced, international maize prices have rebounded slightly, and China's maize import growth is expected to slowdown in 2019.

Soybean imports and exports will decrease by 4.6% and 2.1%, respectively. Global soybean production is slightly reduced, but stocks are still high. China-US economic and trade consultations have made positive progress, boosting the international market, but uncertainty still exists. It is expected that China's soybean import will decrease in the year.

Figure 4.20. Rate of change of imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2019 compared to those for 2018(%)