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Some food deficit areas listed by FAO southof the Equator (Zimbabwe, Malawi, Madagascar and Mozambique) now grapple withdrought, but they badly suffered from floods when they were hit by cyclone Idaiin March. They still struggling to recover from the cyclone to the extent that,on 23 October, the UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) stated that “overUS$4 billion is needed to help Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe recover.”

In Zimbabwe Idai caused damage for an estimated $622 million. 270,000 people are still in need of help, including 60,000 who were displaced. Up to $1.1 billion is needed to support Zimbabwe’s recovery and restore damaged infrastructure and livelihoods. Mozambique, which bore the brunt of the cyclone’s impact, suffered a second though less severe impact at the end of April (cyclone Kenneth), which was followed by drought. About 700000 Ha of crops were flooded, not to mention a much larger area which suffered from water logging and badly damaged infrastructure. Much land was buried in sand and seeds were in short supply. According to Save the Children, close to 450000 families lost their livelihoods. By mid-September close to 2 million people were estimated to be seriously food insecure, with many living in tented camps, a situation that is estimated to last at least until the end of the year. The cost of the immediately required assistance is estimated at 160 million US$. In Malawi, according to the Southern African Development Community (SADC), 1.1 million people will be in IPC phase 3 (crisis) until March 2020, especially in the districts of Karongo, Balaka and Mchinji where malnutrition rates are above 10%, in spite of a nationwide mostly favorable 2018/19 crop. In Zambia 2.3 million people are projected to be severely food insecure (IPC Phase 3 or 4) in March 2020. ReliefWeb, quoting the UN Office for the coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) indicated that, at the end of September, “More than 9.2 million people across the region are now severely food insecure, and this figure is expected to grow to 12 million at the peak of the lean season (October 2019-March 2020).”

Drought and Fires

Drought and resulting fires have received wide media coverage during the current JASO reporting period. In several countries huge bush and forest fires resulted from initial indifference, climate change denial and unpreparedness, frequently leading to local and international tensions! Fires not only absorb vital national resources but also affect infrastructure, living conditions and the health of people. Examples include power cuts in California, closed schools in Malaysia (due to fires in Indonesia) in Bolivia and Brazil, respiratory problems, severe impacts on biodiversity and direct crop loss. UNICEF estimated that 10 million children in Indonesia were endangered by the 2019 smoke pollution.

Fires were mainly observed at high latitudes in Asia (Siberia) and America (Canadian Arctic and Alaska), California, the Amazon (Peru and Paraguay, but mostly Brazil and Bolivia), Indonesia and Australia.

Siberian fires occurred mainly in July and August. 3 million hectares were burning at the end of July, with a total of 12 million destroyed in 2019. Unusually high temperature and strong winds are listed as main factors. Similarly, the fires which affected south-central Alaska in August were also assigned to “unprecedented temperatures.”

In California, the 2019 “fire season” is reported to have been one of the most destructive in history with 6200 incidents destroying about 80000 hectares. More than 100 people lost their lives and thousands of houses were lost. In addition to heat and wind, reduced snow and an increase of the snow-less period in the Sierras by 75 days are given as contributing factors.

Contrary to semi-arid areas such as California and Australia, fires in rain-forest areas in south-east Asia and south America are mostly due to human activities, such as logging and deforesting to expand agricultural land for grazing and soybean cultivation (Brazil). In 2019, about 900000 hectares of forest were lost due to fire, which represents about 0.1% of the total Amazonian forest area. At the end of August, INPE, the national Brazilian Remote sensing research institution reported 80000 fires across the country, a 77% increase over average, and including 40000 fires in nine core Amazonian states. Bolivian Amazon fires, which lasted from late August to September were eventually reduced by rain. The department of Santa Cruz was severely affected, with 521 thousand hectares of forest and grassland and hundreds of hectares of crops burnt. Amid lots of national and international tension, the fires eventually led to international assistance and legislation aiming at reducing future fires.

Toxic smoke from Indonesian fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan in September were monitored closely by the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) that provided detailed regional maps of haze over Sumatra, Borneo and peninsular Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei Darussalaam. The smoke has affected much of the region and has led to some tension among neighboring countries.

Bush fires in Australia, which started in September and continued into November destroyed 700000 Ha especially in the south-east (new South Wales and Queensland); they even locally moved into rainforest areas in Queensland, which is exceptional. Several hundred houses were lost. Australia suffered from the worst drought in 100 years; many catchment basins in New South Wales (Macquarie River, Lachlan River, the fourth-longest in Australia) recorded less than 10 % of their average water inflow.

Figure 5.1: The beginnings of a fire in Sherman Oaks, California, fills the skyline with smoke. Photograph: John Fredricks/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/25/a-special-kind-of-hell-fires-smoke-and-heat-turn-la-into-a-deadly-paradise.

Drought

The Central American “dry corridor” has been experiencing drought for the last five seasons. This has resulted in the loss of staple crops, mostly maize and beans in many areas, including the Honduran Departments of Choluteca, Valle, La Paz, El Paraíso and Francisco Morazán. According to FEWSNET, subsistence farmers were the most affected, with drought occurring at advanced phenological stages between flowering and ripeness. Temperature anomalies during August and early September exceeded 2.5°C over most of western Nicaragua, eastern Honduras, as well as central and northern Guatemala. El Salvador deplored the greatest losses (40 to 60%) while they reached 15% in the center and west, although rainfall improved in September. For many people, emigration is seen as the only way to cope with repeated crop failures. The Honduran government declared an emergency in August 2018 when it became clear that the crisis situation would last throughout 2019. In early August 2019 more than 1.4 million people were in need of urgent assistance in Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua, with a total of 2 million affected. At the end of September the Guatemalan government has taken steps to assist 6.7 million people (almost 40% of the population) at risk of malnutrition. According to the World Food Programme 25% of households in the region have insufficient income to cover their basic food needs and 8% indicated that migration was their only hope.

In the Horn of Africa, the spring rainy season was among the top three driest on record, just one year after the end of a major drought in 2016-2017. Households had no time to recover, nor pastures and herds to regenerate in areas where livestock is the basis of livelihoods. As a result food prices are high in the entire region, further reducing access to basic food supplies. In Somalia the cereal harvest is the poorest since 2011, according to FAO. Delayed spring rains (the “Gu” season from April to June), and insignificant river flow have resulted in yields not exceeding a third of normal values. Around 2.6 million people are estimated to be severely food insecure, falling under IPC phases 3 and 4. The situation is not likely to improve until the "Deyr" crop (starting in October) will be available from December. Close to 5 million Somalis suffer hunger and additional 1.2 million may become malnourished this year while 2.6 million people have fled their homes, due to conflict. The Somali drought has even received a name (“Sima”) and has claimed 250000 lives since 2011. In the Sudan 6.3 million people (14% of the population) are experiencing a food crisis, the largest since 2007. At mid-October, Save the Children warned of a major emergency in the Horn of Africa, as nearly 13 million people face critical levels of hunger following a succession of failed rains. Half of the affected people, an estimated 6.5 million, are children. The region is now experiencing the lowest cumulative rainfall totals since 1981, according to a joint position paper published in mid-October by FAO, UNICEF and WFP (“Horn of Africa: A joint call for action before a major regional humanitarian crisis).

Floods

Floods were reported in August on all continents. In parts of the lower Mississippi Delta, about 220000 hectares had been under water since February (Yazoo backwater area). Floods also affected Asia, including India, Myanmar and Pakistan. In India, parts the south (Kerala and Karnataka ) and west (Gujarat and Maharashtra) were hit, leaving 224 people dead in some areas where floods returned in October. At the end of the month torrential rain destroyed shelters for displaced people in northeast Nigeria, severely flooding temporary camps and leaving vulnerable families homeless, about 7000 people in Maiduguri and 500 people in Dikwa. Relief organizations have reported that displaced people are living in sub-human conditions across the region, but several international Donors are focusing their assistance to the north-eastern States of Borno and Yobe, strengthening recovery and building conflict resilience.

In September, parts of eastern Spain have received the heaviest rainfall on record, which killed several people. At the end of the month, floods brought misery to India in northern states (e.g. Bihar and Uttar Pradesh) and in the east, where the casualties exceeded 100 after the delayed monsoon rains eventually started. In the north (Uttar Pradesh), 93 people have died as the rains caused homes to collapse. In neighboring Bihar, dozens of people died.

October brought excessive precipitation to eight south-western French departments in the Regions of Languedoc-Roussillon, Gard and Pyrénées Orientales. Abundant rain also fell in most of the Horn of Africa (except in northern and western south Sudan and south-west Uganda) potentially improving prospects for the ongoing or starting crop seasons and range-land, referred to as "Deyr" in Somalia (as mentioned above), "Meher" in Ethiopia, “short rains” in bimodal rainfall areas in the east and southern areas. The current rain correspond to the main season in northern Tanzania and western Kenya. The region is currently under the influence of the “Indian Ocean Dipole”, sometimes referred to as the “Indian Ocean El Niño”, which is likely to boost precipitation until the end of the year. However, the region was affected by the “tail” of cyclone Kyarr which originated on 24 October off the western Indian Coast in the southeastern Arabian Sea, first moving east and affecting the western Indian coast (Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Goa). It them turned westwards, moving south of the Arabian peninsula and eventually reaching Somalia on 3 November. Although the cyclone had lost its super cyclonic storm features, it lead to additional abundant precipitation affecting about 1 million people through floods in 27 counties in South Sudan, but also in Somalia and Kenya. In Somalia, 180000 people were displaced and crops were destroyed in areas where moderate to severe drought had affected crops earlier in the season. 38 people died in Kenya. At the very end of October landslides due to heavy rain killed about 35 people in Cameroon and made hundreds homeless. The abundant rains created damage, but most of it was lost in runoff.

Figure 5.2: Floodwaters between Bor and Pibor (South Sudan) on 20 October 2019. Source: Médecins sans frontières, published by https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2019/nov/01/flooding-in-east-africa-affects-more-than-1-millio/

Cyclones

In addition to the above mentioned Kyarr, the most notable cyclones were Dorian (Caribbean) and, In Asia. Lekima, Faxai and Hagibis.

Heavy rain exceeding 200 mm fell over eastern China after Typhoon Lekima (known as Hanna in the Philippines) made landfall late on 9 August, affecting Zhejiang - where the impact was strongest -, Jiangsu, Shandong, Anhui and Fujian Provinces. Wind peak speed reached 240km/h. Daily rainfall as high as 291 mm was recorded in Beilun district in Zhejiang Province. The highest precipitation fell in Linqu county (Shandong Province) at 387 mm. A second landfall occurred on 11 August in Shandong province (Qingdao). More than 1.7 million people had to be evacuated (including from parts of Shanghai) and about 13 million people were affected in nine provinces, with casualties exceeding 60 deaths. Lekima is the third strongest typhoon in East China since 1949, and the worst in 13 years. Total damage is estimated at 9.3 billion US$, including damage to just under 1000000 Ha of agricultural lands. Thousands of trees were uprooted or broken. The price of vegetables increased by 9% in some areas. According to Xinhua news agency, the government has released relief material and 86 million US$ (665 million RMB) for recovery operations to Liaoning, Zhejiang and Shandong Provinces.

Figure 5.3: The site of the landslide on 11 August 2019 in Shanzao Village of Yantan Township in Yongjia County, Zhejiang Province. (Xinhua/Han Chuanhao). Source: http://www.ecns.cn/hd/2019-08-12/detail-ifzmwwnr7045884.shtml#1

(13) Hurricane Dorian very slowly (1.5 to 8 km/hour) crossed the Bahaman islands of Grand Bahama and Abaco in 1 September, with wind gusts reaching 320 km/h and a storm surge of close to 7.5 m. 67 people where left dead and more than 600 were still missing at the beginning of October. According to the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Federation as many as 13,000 houses have been severely damaged or destroyed and drinking water was contaminated by saltwater. 76000 people were affected out of a total population just under 400000. The Hurricane subsequently moved along the eastern American coast and died off the Canadian coast, resulting in broken trees and power cuts in Canada.

Typhoon Faxai, the worst storm in Japan in 60 years, just browsed Wake island in the east of the country on 9 September. Damage is estimated at 7 billion US$ but only three deaths occurred. After affecting Guam and the Mariana Islands, a second cyclone, Hagibis, brought havoc to much of Japan, after making landfall on Izu Peninsula and then near Yokohama on 11 October. It also brought rainfall to the Korean Peninsula, eastern China, Russia and Alaska as it circled off northern Kamchatka up to 20 October. In central and eastern Japan at least 25 rivers burst their banks. About 90 died and some are still missing; 3560 were injured. At least 25000 Ha were flooded. Insured losses exceed 9 billion US$. The combined damage to the agricultural sector of cyclones Faxai and Hagibis in 38 Prefectures reaches 2.3 billion US$, with 350 million US$ assigned to Hagibis, of which about one third results from direct crop damage to horticultural crops and rice. As a result, some prices of particularly affected vegetables rose between 30% and 80% in Tokyo. Agricultural infrastructure losses (including irrigation) are estimated at 1 billion US$, of which 540 million to the forestry sector and 92 to the fisheries sector.

Sources consulted by subject

Southern Africa cyclone aftermath and drought: https://www.uneca.org/stories/malawi-mozambique-and-zimbabwe-need-4-bn-recover-devastating-cyclones; https://www.unops.org/news-and-stories/news/cyclone-idai-recovery-projects-launched-in-zimbabwe; https://reliefweb.int/report/zimbabwe/southern-africa-humanitarian-key-messages-september-2019; https://www.savethechildren.org/us/about-us/media-and-news/2019-press-releases/six-months-from-cyclone-idai; https://www.undp.org/content/dam/undp/library/Climate%20and%20Disaster%20Resilience/PDNA/PDNA%20Mozambique%20Cyclone%20Idai%20-%20Post-Disaster%20Needs%20Assessment_Full_Report.pdf; http://www.ipcinfo.org/fileadmin/user_upload/ipcinfo/docs/IPC_AFI_AMN_Mozambique_2019April2020Feb_English.pdf; https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/SADC_Malawi_snapshot_July2019.pdf; https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/SADC_Zambia_snapshot_July2019.pdf;

Migrant deaths: https://reliefweb.int/report/world/m-s-de-500-personas-han-muerto-en-las-rutas-migratorias-de-am-rica-este-o; https://reliefweb.int/report/mexico/iom-launches-five-campaigns-prevent-irregular-migration-mexico-and-central-america; https://missingmigrants.iom.int/global-figures/all/xls; https://publications.iom.int/books/fatal-journeys-volume-3-part-1-improving-data-missing-migrants; https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/international-migrant-stock-2019.html; https://www.iom.int/news/mediterranean-migrant-arrivals-reach-111558-2018-deaths-reach-2217; https://reliefweb.int/report/burkina-faso/burkina-faso-s-unprecedented-humanitarian-crisis-calls-stronger-international; https://www.iom.int/news/over-7400-deaths-migration-routes-across-africa-last-five-years-iom-figures-show; https://reliefweb.int/report/world/iom-warns-about-1000-deaths-mediterranean

Siberia fires https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/12/arctic-wildfires-smoke-cloud; https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/31/putin-sends-military-fight-siberia-forest-fires-russia

North American fires: https://www.theguardian.com/world/natural-disasters; https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2019/; https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/aug/23/there-is-no-silver-lining-why-alaska-fires-are-a-glimpse-of-our-climate-future

Amazon fires: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/08/bolivian-amazon-fires-relief-as-rains-douse-two-month-inferno; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Amazon_rainforest_wildfires; https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/www.humanitarianresponse.info/files/2019/08/BO---SitRep-Fire-Forest-N.-1-HCT.pdf

Indonesia fires: https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2019/sep/24/indonesian-forest-fires-burn-causing-toxic-haze-across-south-east-asia-in-pictures; https://www.unicef.org/eap/press-releases/indonesia-10-million-children-risk-air-pollution-due-wild-forest-fires; https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/12/indonesia-forest-fires-spark-blame-game-as-smoke-closes-hundreds-of-malaysia-schools; http://asmc.asean.org/home/

Australian fires and drought: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/15/parts-of-regional-nsw-set-to-run-out-of-water-by-november; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushfires_in_Australia; https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/15/nsw-and-queensland-bushfires-brief-respite-ahead-of-hot-and-windy-week; https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/13/nsw-bushfires-rain-not-enough-to-extinguish-blazes-ahead-of-rising-temperatures

Central American drought: https://www.wfp.org/news/germany-contributes-eu1-million-support-families-dry-corridor-honduras; https://reliefweb.int/report/el-salvador/el-clima-se-llev-sus-cosechas-y-ahora-pasan-hambre;http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/1208508/icode/; http://www.fao.org/3/ca6057en/ca6057en.pdf https://fews.net/sites/default/files/documents/reports/CENTRAL_AMERICA_Seasonal_Monitor_septiembre_final.pdf; https://www.agn.com.gt/gobierno-de-guatemala-destina-4301-millones-de-quetzales-para-implementar-acciones-contra-la-desnutricion/

East Africa drought and floods: https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/09/1045462; https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/IP-19-5090_EN.pdf; https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/www.humanitarianresponse.info/files/documents/files/press_release_2_sept-fsnau-_final-mursal.pdf ; http://fews.net/southern-africa/key-message-update/august-2019; https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/uk-aid-provide-life-saving-support-one-million-people-crippled-drought-somalia; https://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/record-number-sudanese-face-food-crisis;https://www.icrc.org/en/document/somalia-conflict-drought-so-severe-it-has-names; https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/HoA JointPosition Paper FAO UNICEF WFP Final.pdf; https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2019/nov/01/flooding-in-east-africa-affects-more-than-1-millio/; https://www.igad.int/divisions/agriculture-and-environment/2283-flood-risks-to-continue-across-east-africa; https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news/2019/10/22/Indian-Ocean-Dipole-flood-danger-East-Africa; https://fews.net/sites/default/files/documents/reports/EA_Seasonal_Monitor_2019_10_14.pdf; https://africatimes.com/2019/10/31/cyclone-kyarr-heads-for-socotra-horn-of-africa-coast/; https://msf.or.ke/en/magazine/state-emergency-declared-flooding-south-sudan-ensues-0