For Central Europe and Western Russia, weather conditions between October 2019 and January 2020 were as follows: RADPAR increased 2%, rainfall was 16% below and temperatures were 2.7°C above the 15 year average.

According to the results of CropWatch, below-average rainfall was observed for large portions of the MPZ. The central part (33.7% of the MPZ) had a deficit from mid-October to early January. For the western part (almost 40.7% of the MPZ), below-average rainfall was observed from mid-October to mid-December. Regions affected were southern Poland, southern Belarus, central and western Ukraine, Romania and Moldova. Above-average rainfall was observed from mid-October 2019 to mid-November, early December and late-January 2020 in northern Poland and eastern Russia (25.6% of the MPZ). However, crop water use was relatively small during this period. In some areas, wheat was hibernating. Moreover, solar radiation and temperatures were generally low and evapotranspiration was minimal. 

The temperatures of the MPZ were 2.7°C above average during monitoring period. From early October to late October, temperatures in Poland, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus and western Russia were above average. From early November to late-November, the temperatures in the MPZ began to drop, and the minimum temperature departure from average reached -3°C. After December, the temperature departures of the MPZ began to rise and reached the maximum in late January. While the temperatures in southern Poland, Romania and southwestern Ukraine were relatively low, large positive temperature departures (+9°C) for western Russia were observed.

The biomass production potential in central Europe and western Russia was generally higher than average (17% higher than the recent 5-year average)，and the spatial distribution of biomass accumulation potential departure indicated the above-average condition in the southern MPZ, and below-average condition in the northern and western MPZ. From October 1, 2019 to January 31, 2020, the proportion of cultivated land was 79% (16% higher than the recent 5-year average). Uncropped arable land was mostly located in southern Ukraine, Yevpatoria, Simferopol and surrounding areas as well as southwestern Russia (including Orenburg, Soliylitsk, Volsk and the south of Saratov).

The maximum VCI for the Central Europe and western Russia MPZ reached a value of 0.92. The areas with high VCI values (>0.8) were mainly distributed in the west, central and northeast of the MPZ. Regions where the maximum VCI was below 0.5 were mainly found in the southeast MPZ, which was in agreement with the uncropped arable land map.

In general, with most parts indicating above-average crop conditions, prospects for crop production are promising in Central Europe to Western Russia.

Figure2.6.Central Europe-Western Russia MPZ: Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, October 2019-January 2020.

a. Spatial distribution of rainfall profiles             b. Profiles of rainfall departure from average (mm)

c. Spatial distribution of temperature profiles       d. Profiles of temperature departure from average (℃)

e. Maximum VCI

f. Cropped arable land

g. Biomass accumulation potential departure