Winter wheat, which was sown in October, is the major crop in the field during this monitoring period.

Agro-climatic conditions behaved some abnormal changes as compared to average. There is a rainfall deficit (RAIN 240 mm or -15%), with an increased temperature ( TEMP 3.9℃ or  +3.2 ℃ above average) but decreased solar radiation (RADPAR 155 MJ/m2 equivalent to a -5%). Nearly all the arable land was cropped (CALF at  99%) and the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was high (0.90). As a result, weather based projected biomass increased by 19%. At the national level, NDVI was below average in October, but started to exceed the 5YA and maximum in November. According to the spatial distribution maps, VCIx was satisfactory in most areas of the country (>0.8). NDVI fluctuated very widely over the country; across most central region (48.1% of cropped area), represented an increase from -0.1 in October to 0.2 by the end of January. Crop conditions were generally favorable for Belarus.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, regional analyses for three agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are provided, including Northern Belarus (028), Central Belarus (027) and Southern Belarus (029). 

Northern Belarus (Vitebsk, northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev) was slightly lower than average for rainfall (-3%), but with increased temperature (+3.4℃) and deficit radiation(-14%). Biomass production is estimated to be 5% higher than 15YA. Agronomic indicators show very satisfactory values: 100% for CALF and 0.88 for VCIx. Crop condition is good.

In Central Belarus, the regions of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev recorded rainfall 20% lower than reference values, and higher temperature (+3.1℃) and lower radiation (-2%). The BIOMSS is projected to increase by 24%. Fully cropped arable land (CALF at 99%) and a VCIx value of 0.88 show good prospects for winter crops. NDVI curve also showed a recovering trend since January. In summary overall situation was favorable for winter crops.

The Southern Belarus (southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions) experienced the same agro-climatic condition as Northern and Central area. Lower rainfall (-33%) has not adversely affected the crops. Other favorable agro-climatic conditions (TEMP +2.9℃; RADPAR +6%; BIOMSS up 33%) and favorable agronomic indicators (CALF 98%; VCIx 0.95 ) as well as rapidly recovering NDVI should ensure satisfactory crop production.

Figure3.xx. Belarus crop condition, October 2019- January 2020

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to5YA         (e) NDVI profiles

 (f) Rainfall time series

 (g) Temperature time series

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Belarus (top), Central Belarus (middle) and Southern Belarus (bottom))

Table 3.XX. Belarus agroclimatic indicators by agroecological zones, current season valuess and departure from15YA, October 2019 January 2020.

Table 3.XX. Belarus agronomic indicators by agroecological zones, current season valuess and departure from15YA/5YA, October 2019- January 2020.