Summer crops have been harvested and winter crops (winter wheat, winter barley, and rapeseed) have been planted during the current reporting period. According to crop condition development graph, NDVI values were below average from October to January. Rainfall for the country were above average (RAIN, +9%), radiation were slightly below average (RADPAR, -3%) and temperatures were close to average (TEMP, -0.2°C). The below average radiation and unfavorable growing conditions resulted in the below average biomass (BIOMSS, -7%). The seasonal RAIN  profile presents overall above average rainfall except mid-October, November and late January, while the seasonal TEMP  profile shows that temperature was below average before mid-November, then above average or average from late November to January.

The national average VCIx was 0.90. CALF (99%) is unchanged compared to its five-year average. The NDVI departure cluster profiles indicate that: (1) 23.4% of arable land experienced slightly above average crop conditions, mainly including Southwest England and Scotland (East of Aberdeenshire);  (2) 45.4% of arable land experienced below or slightly below average crop conditions, mainly including Southeast England (Hampshire and Kent)and Scotland (Aberdeenshire, Angus, Fife, East Lothian, Scottish Borders), Northeast England (Northumberland, County Durham), Yorkshire and the Humber, East Midlands (Lincoinshire), East of England (Norfolk); (3) 31.1% of arable land  experienced slightly below average from October to Noveber, then fluctuating conditions from December to January, including Southeast England (West Sussex, East Sussex), East of England (Sufolk, Essex) and West Midland (Staffordshire, Warwickshire, Worcestershire). Altogether, the outputs for wheat in the country are expected to be below average.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national regions can be distinguished: 1) Central sparse crop region, 2) Northern barley region, and 3) Southern mixed wheat and barley region. The fractions of arable land (CALF) in all subregions are average compared to 5 years average.

The Central sparse crop region is one of major agricultural regions in terms of crop production. Rainfall was above average (RAIN +3%), radiation and temperature were below average (RADPAR, -2%; TEMP, -0.4°C), which resulted in the biomass estimates that were below average (BIOMSS, -6%). NDVI values were below or near the five-year maximum according to the region's crop condition development graph in October to January. The VCIx was at 0.94. Altogether, the conditions for wheat are expected to be below average. 

Northern barley region suffered the largest rain deficit (RAIN, -9%) in all the regions. Temperature were average (TEMP, -0.3°C) and radiation were above average (RADPAR, +2%). Biomass was slightly below average (BIOMSS, -1%). NDVI was below average according to the crop condition graphs in this reporting period. The VCIx was 0.92. Altogether, the output of wheat is expected to be on average. 

The largest rainfall excess (RAIN, +35%) was recorded in Southern mixed wheat and barley zone, while temperature was on average (TEMP,-0.2°C) and radiation was below average (RADPAR, -6%). The low radiation and excessive rainfall resulted in below average biomass (BIOMSS, -9%). NDVI was below average according to the crop condition graph in this period. The VCIx was 0.89, slightly less than the other regions. Altogether, the output of wheat is expected to be below average. 

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall pofile (left) and temperature pofile (right) 

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Barley region (left) and Central sparse crop region  (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern mixed wheat and Barley zone)

Table 3.37. United Kingdom’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2019 - January 2020

Table 3.38. United Kingdom’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions,current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2019 - January 2020