This monitoring period (October 2019- January 2020) covers the late growth and harvest of Kharif (summer) maize, rice and soybean and the planting and early growth of Rabi (winter) rice and wheat. The graph of NDVI development shows that crop growth during this monitoring period was higher than the average level in previous years; especially from December 2019 to January 2020, the difference between the NDVI value and the average level continued to increase.

At the national scale, affected by the monsoon rainy season, India continued to have rainfall in October and November. The rainfall during this monitoring period was much higher than the 15YA average (+76%). RAIN in 26 states of India exceeded the 15-year average, in 8 agro-ecological regions it increased significantly, with large spatial differences: Deccan Plateau (+148%), Eastern coastal region (+35%), Gangetic plain (+81%), Assam and north-eastern region (+25%), Agriculture areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat ( +357%), Western coastal region (+1139%), and the North-western dry region (+159%). Cumulative rainfall was much higher than the 15-year average, especially between October and November 2019. TEMP in India decreased by 0.3°C compared with the same period of the previous 15 years. Only Eastern coastal region remained unchanged, and the rest of the agro-ecological regions decreased. Compared with the 15-year average level, RADPAR for the whole of India also decreased by 7%.

At the country level, BIOMSS during this period was 37% above average of the past 15 years. Only in Assam and north-eastern region BIOMSS was lower than the 15-year average (-3%), where the increase in rainfall could not compensate the effect of decreasing temperature and sunshine. But the BIOMSS of remaining seven agro-ecological regions had increased significantly. This may be related to the heavy rainfall in the early part of the period. Although it caused the reduction of TEMP and RADPAR, the continuous rainfall in October and November 2019 increased the soil moisture required for planting and promoted the growth of crops. In addition, CALF increased by 7%, and the cultivated area expanded. However, the CALF in North-western dry region was lower than the 5-year average (- 40%). Heavy rain (+ 1139% relative to average) might have caused flooding and affected the sowing of cultivated land in the earlier period from Fig (L).

Overall, due to the abundant rainfall in the previous period, India's crop growth in this period is better than the average level in the previous year. The wheat production for the whole of India in this period may increase even if the North-western dry region might be lower than the average.

Regional analysis

India is divided into eight agro-ecological zones: the Deccan Plateau (94), the Eastern coastal region(95), the Gangetic plain (96), Assam and north-eastern regions (97), Agriculture areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat (98), the Western coastal region(99), the North-western dry region (100) and the Western Himalayan region(101).

The five agro-ecological zones of the Deccan Plateau, the Eastern coastal region, the Gangetic plain,  Agriculture areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat, and the Western coastal region have similar trends in agricultural indices. Compared to the same period of previous years, RAIN had increased significantly. Although TEMP and RADPAR were lower, abundant rainfall compensated for their effects and caused BIOMSS to be much higher than the 15-year average. At the same time, CALF also increased and the VCIx was higher than 1.04. The graph of NDVI development shows that the crop growth of the five agro-ecological regions during this monitoring period exceeded the 5-year maximum. Generally, the crop production is expected to be above average.

The Assam and Northeastern region recorded 395mm of RAIN (+25%), with slightly lower average TEMP at 16.4°C (-0.2°C) and RADPAR of 846 MJ/m²  (-6%). BIOMSS was lower than the average (-3%). Increased rainfall was not enough to compensate for reduced temperature and sunshine. CALF reached 96% which was above average (+1%), and VCIx was 0.99. The outlook of crop production in this region is not promising.

The North-western dry region recorded 129 mm of RAIN (+1139% much higher the average), with slightly below average TEMP at 20.9°C (-0.1°C) and RADPAR of 977 MJ/m²  (-3%). BIOMSS was much higher than the average (+318%), and CALF reached 37% which is lower than average (-40%). Heavy rainfall might have caused flooding conditions and affected the sowing of cultivated land in the earlier period from Fig (L). The VCIx was 1.09. Therefore, although crops are growing better in the region, a large reduction in CALF will reduce crop production to below average.

The Western Himalayan region recorded 272 mm of RAIN (+159% higher the average), with much lower average TEMP at 10.4°C (-1.3°C) and RADPAR of 818 MJ/m²  (-9%). The BIOMSS was higher than the average (+50%) due to the sufficient rainfall. CALF reached 97% which was above the 5-year average (+4%) and VCIx was 1.00. But crop condition as assessed by NDVI was close to the average. Generally, the crop production may be favorable.

Figure 3.20. India’s crop condition, October 2019 - January 2020

                                                (a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI       (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles

                (f) Rainfall profiles                                               (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Deccan Plateau (left) and Eastern Coastal Region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Gangetic Plains (left) and Assam and north-eastern regions (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Agriculture areas in Rajastan and Gujarat (left) and Western Coastal Region (right))

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North-western dry region (left) and Western Himalayan Region (right))

(L) Rainfall profiles of the North-western dry region

Table 3.31. India’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2019 - January 2020

Table 3.32. India’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA/15YA, October 2019 - January 2020