During the monitoring period, crop condition was generally above average except for January according to the NDVI profile. The planting of winter wheat was completed in November. Radiation and temperature were both slightly below average (RADPAR -3%, TEMP, -0.1°C), while abundant rainfall nourished the vegetation (RAIN, +22%). The favorable agro-climatic conditions resulted in an increase in the BIOMSS index by 22% comparing to the five-year average. The national average of maximum VCI index reached 0.92, and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) increased by 32% compared to the recent five-year average.

According to the spatial distribution of NDVI profiles, approximately 44.4% of the cropland had very good crop condition during the whole monitoring period, mainly located in northwestern, northeastern, and western parts of Iran. The crop condition of roughly 25% of the croplands, marked in deep green, was quite favorable in October and November, and then glided until the end of the monitoring period. It is worth noticing that 8.1% of the croplands suffered from unfavorable crop condition, mainly distributed in northern region and some parts in western region, including the provinces of Ardabil, Gilan, Mazandaran, Luristan, and Isfahan.

Overall, the early crop condition for winter crops is favorable for the current season. The final outcome of the season will be determined by soil moisture in March when vegetative growth will resume. 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Iran, among which two are relevant for crop cultivation. The two regions are referred to as the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north (75), and the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains (74). 

In the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region, crop condition was very good at the beginning of the monitoring period, and the below average NDVI values might be related to the cloudy weather conditions. The accumulated rainfall was 227 mm (13% above average), temperature was slightly below average (TEMP -0.1°C) and radiation was also slightly below average (RADPAR -2%). The favorable weather conditions resulted in an increase of BIOMSS by 5% compared to the recent five-year average. The CALF increased by 17%, and the average VCIx (0.91) was high. The output will be quite favorable.

Crop condition in the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region was above average throughout the whole monitoring period, and crop condition in October even exceeded the five-year maximum. The region received 246 mm rainfall during this report period. The far above average rainfall (RAIN, +72%) and average temperature resulted in a significant 72% increase of BIOMSS. The CALF increased by 121% comparing to five-year average, reflecting that more land was cultivated. The average VCIx (1.05) of this region reached the five-year maximum. Therefore, the crop conditions for this season are expected to be very favorable. 

Figure 3.21. Iran’s crop condition, October 2019 - January 2020 

                                                       (a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (c) Time series rainfall profile

(d) Time series temperature profile                               (e)  Maximum VCI

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                   (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region (left) and Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region (right))

Table 3.33. Iran’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2019 - January 2020

Table 3.34. Iran’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 15YA/5YA, October 2019-January 2020