The 2019-20 winter wheat crop was sown in October. Generally, according to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were below the values of the previous year, but very close to the average of the past five years from October to January. CropWatch agro-climatic indicators show above average Rainfall (+20%), TEMP (+0.8°C) and RADPAR (+1%). With CALF up by 5%, BIOMSS increased by 0.7% and VCIx was 0.95. Some spatial and temporal detail is provided by the NDVI clusters: NDVI was above average throughout the monitoring period on 23.6% of arable land in Northern Italy, and below average on 18.6% in Eastern Italy. In Southern Italy (about 19.5% of arable land) crop condition was below average from October to November and above average from December to January. About 36.6% of arable land was above average from October to November and below average from December to January. A small fraction, about 1.7% of arable land, was below average in November, but then improved to close to average conditions. The overall crop condition in the country is assessed as favorable.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, four sub-national regions can be distinguished for Italy; they include Eastern Italy, Northern Italy, Southern Italy (Sicily) and Western Italy (including Sardinia).The index of cultivated arable land (CALF) compared to previous years in all sub-regions was as follows: decreased by 3% in Eastern Italy region, increased by 12% in Northern Italy, increased by 1% in Western Italy and increased by 8% in Southern Italy sub-regions.

Eastern Italy experienced above average rain (RAIN +36%), below average TEMP (-1.5°C) and RADPAR (-13%). As a consequence, BIOMSS decreased by 27% compared with the averages (5YA). VCIx was 0.81. The crop condition development graph indicates that NDVI exceeded the values of last year from October to late November, but was below the 5 years average. After November NDVI was consistent with the values of the previous year. Average production is expected.

Crop production in Northern Italy was affected by high rainfall, with RAIN up by 57% compared to average, slightly below average TEMP (-0.1°C) and average RADPAR. BIOMSS was below the 5YA by 12% and VCIx reached 0.98. The crop condition development graph indicates higher  values than during last year, reaching the average of 5 years from November to January. According to the agro-climatic indicators, above average output is expected.

Southern Italy recorded above average precipitation (RAIN +7%), TEMP (+0.9°C) and RADPAR (+8%). BIOMSS increased by 8% compared with the average (5YA). VCIx was 0.87. NDVI was below average throughout the monitoring period. The crop production in this region is expected to be close to average.

In Western Italy, precipitation was 3 % above average (RAIN +3%). RADPAR(+7%) and TEMP(+1.4°C) were also above average, which resulted in a biomass production potential increase in this region (BIOMSS +13%). The NDVI was below average from October to late November and above average from December to January. VCIx reached 0.97. CropWatch expects above average production.

Overall, prospects for winter crops are promising.

Figure3.24. Italy crop condition, October 2019-January 2020

Figure3.24a. Italy phenology of major crops

Figure3.24b. Italy national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI,comparing the October 2019-January 2020 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure3.24c. Italy maximum VCI for October 2019-January 2020 by pixel

Figure3.24d. Italy spatial NDVI patterns up to January 2020 according to local cropping patterns and compared to 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles(right)

Figure3.24f. Eastern Italy (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.24g. Northern Italy (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.24h. Southern Italy (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.24i. Western Italy crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table3.45  Italy agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season values and departure from 15YA, October 2019-January 2020

Table 3.46  Italy agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season values and departure from 5YA, October 2019-January 2020