This reporting period covers the first half of the rainy season, which lasts from November to March. Winter wheat is sown in November. The cereal production in Morocco is heavily dependent on rainfall, since only 15 percent of the country's cropland is irrigated. Eighty percent of the arable land is located in arid or semi-arid areas. 

For the current reporting period, the CropWatch agro-climatic indicators showed a large reduction (-33%) in rainfall as compared to the 15 year average.  The weather was sunnier, RADPAR was 5% above the average, and colder. The average temperature was 0.2°C lower. The CropWatch estimated biomass (BIOMSS) was 17% below the average, due to limited rainfall. 

The nationwide NDVI graph indicated that crops conditions were near average and the maximum VCI indicated  moderate (0.72) crop conditions. However, the NDVI spatial clustering map showed that the conditions for half of the cropped area, mostly in the southern part of the country, were below the average.  

As a general conclusion, all agro-climatic and agronomic indicators were consistent and more sensitive to the large deficit in rainfall than the NDVI-based graph of crop conditions. The current conditions for Morocco are unfavorable.

Regional analysis

CropWatch adopts three agro‐ecological zones (AEZs) relevant for crop production in Morocco: The Sub-humid northern highlands, the Warm semiarid zone and the Warm sub-humid zone.

All agro-climatic indicators measured for the three agro‐ecological zones are consistent with the national trend. The reductions in the rainfall for the three zones were 24%, 44% and 32% below the average respectively. The drop in temperature was 0.2 °C below the average in Sub-humid northern highlands and by 0.3°C in the two other zones. Higher RADPAR data resulted from the sunnier conditions, particularly for the Warm semiarid zone (RADPAR=858 MJ/m2 with a 6% increase above the average). Due to the rainfall shortage, the estimated BIOMSS was below average for the three zones (by 16, 16 and 12% respectively).

In the Sub-humid northern highlands and Warm sub-humid zones, the crop conditions based on the NDVI graph indicated that they were below average in October, near average in November and then turned to be above average in December and January. The impact of the rainfall deficit was more profound in the Warm semiarid zones where crop conditions were below average during the whole reporting period. This was also confirmed by the estimated maximum VCI since the Warm semiarid zones had the lowest VCI (0.61) as compared to the other two zones. The Warm semiarid zones include the provinces with major wheat production such as El Jadda and Settat.

The maximum VCI was high (0.84) in the Warm subhumid zones, which indicated less impact of rainfall shortage on crop conditions than in the other two zones, while conditions in Sub-humid northern highlands were moderate with maximum VCI of 0.78.

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Time series profiles of precipitation (left) and temperature (right)

(c) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                       (d) Maximum VCI

(e) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                        (f) NDVI profiles

(g) crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Sub-humid northern highlands (left) and Warm semiarid zone (right)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Warm sub-humid zone.

Morocco’s agroclimatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October2019 – January 2020.

Morocco’s agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October2019 – January 2020.