As the most dominant cereal crop in Myanmar, rice is grown nationwide during the rainy season. Maize is another major crop that is growing in the dry season in highlands, accompanied by second rice. Wheat plays a little role in total crop production and is mainly grown in the central dry zone. The country went through the end of the rainy season in October and entered a cool dry season during November and January. This monitoring period covers the early harvesting season for maize and harvesting season for rice, as well as the sowing season and the growing season for second rice and wheat crops. CropWatch generally assesses the crop condition of Myanmar during this monitoring period as below-average in general.

Compared to the 15YA level, precipitation(RAIN) decreased by 19% while radiation (RADPAR) was 6% up. Temperature (TEMP) was average. Precipitation was below average mainly in October. As a result, potential cumulative biomass (BIOMSS) underwent a 17% reduction as compared to its 15YA level. The arable land was near full utilization according to the monitoring results in sub-national regions. The crop arable land fraction (CALF) increased by 1% nationally as compared to its 5YA. As shown in the NDVI development graph, NDVI values were about the 5YA at first and were slightly below the average since late December.

Crop condition underwent marked spatial variations according to the NDVI cluster and profile maps. 49.7% of cropland showed positive NDVI departure values throughout the monitoring period, including the regions of Sagaing, Mandalay, Magew, Bago Ayeyarwady and highlands in Shan State. 43.9% of cropland showed negative NDVI departure values during the whole period. 9% of cropland in Ayeyarwady and Bogo displayed negative NDVI departure values before December, reflecting the negative influence  of insufficient precipitation during the sowing season. The VCIx map shows values between 0.5 and 0.8 over Mandalay Region and high values in the other regions.

Regional analysis

Based on the cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological zones (AEZ) can be distinguished for Myanmar. They are the Delta and southern-coast, the Central plain, and the Hills.

The Delta and southern-coast region experienced a dry season with a relatively low RAIN (199 mm), a 43% decrease compared to the 15YA. TEMP and RADPAR increased by 0.3℃ and 7%, respectively. BIOMSS decreased by 9% and  CALF rose by 1%. NDVI was near average until January, when it dropped slightly to below average in January. The maximum VCIx was 0.96 for this region. The crop condition is below-average in general.

The Central plain was also short of RAIN (252 mm, 16% below the 15YA) while TEMP and RADPAR both increased, by 0.2℃ and 6% respectively. BIOMSS was 21% below the 15YA. This was the largest decrease among the three sub-national regions. CALF was up 1% above average. NDVI was near the level of the 5YA during the whole period and also experienced a slight decrease below average in January. The maximum VCIx was 0.94 for the region. The crop condition is assessed as moderately below the 5YA.

Analogous to the other two sub-national regions, the Hills region had less RAIN (286 mm),  12% below the 15YA. Temperature was slightly lower (TEMP -0.3℃) and radiation higher (RADPAR +6%). Even with the  cropland fully used, BIOMSS was 18% down compared to the 15YA. The variation of NDVI was similar to the Central region. In spite of the high value of the maximum VCIx (0.99) for the region, the crop condition for this region is slightly below-average in general according to the agroclimatic indicators.

Figure 3.30. Myanmar's crop condition, October 2019 - January 2020

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Rainfall profile

(d) Temperature profile

(e) Maximum VCI

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA   (g) NDVI profiles

h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Coastal region (left) and Central plain (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Hill region)

Table 3.73. Myanmar's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from15YA, October 2019 - January 2020

Table 3.74. Myanmar's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2019 - January 2020