Mozambique

During the period between October 2019 to January 2020, farmers in Mozambique planted their maize, rice and wheat crops. This monitoring period, which lasts until the end of January, also covers the establishment and early growth phases of these crops. Low rainfall recorded in the southern region (in the provinces of Maputo, Gaza and Inhambane) has negatively impacted the crop conditions. However, in January, heavy rainfall was recorded in that region. Unlike the southern region, the central and northern regions of the country recorded favourable rainfall for crop establishment and development.

The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators reveal that during this period, rainfall, temperature and radiation were all above average (RAIN +12%, TEMP +0.3º and RADPAR +1%, respectively). Even so, the potential biomass was just close to average. CALF is 10% above 5YA, reaching 98%, indicating an increase in the total cropped area. 

Nationwide, about average crop conditions were observed as indicated by the NDVI based crop development graph. The maximum VCIx recorded was 0.91 which also confirmed the favourable crop condition. Positive NDVI anomalies were verified in more than 30% of the cropped area, mostly concentrated in the provinces of Zambézia, Sofala, Nampula, Manica and northern Tete. About 19.1% of the cropped area recorded continuous unfavourable NDVI anomalies, mostly in southern Mozambique mainly due to the water shortage. The remaining areas showed mixed behaviours.

Overall, CropWatch assesses production potential at an above-average level in the 2019-2020 season.

Regional analysis

According to the cropping system, topography and climate, Mozambique is subdivided into five agro-ecological zones (AEZ): (1) Buzi Basin, (2) Northern High-altitude Areas, (3) Low Zambezi River Basin, (4) Northern Coast and (5) Southern Region.

The subregions development graphs based on the NDVI show that during the October 2019-January 2020 monitoring period, crop conditions were favourable in the Buzi Basin, NorthernHigh-altitude Areas, Low Zambezi River Basin, and Northern Coast areas, while the Southern region experienced the unfavourable crop conditions throughout entire period compared to the five years average as a result of water shortage.

Except for the Southern region (rainfall at 331mm, 29% below average) and the Buzi Basin (near average), all other agro-ecological zones recorded positive rainfall departures of up to 42%. Significant deviations from average temperatures were observed in the Northern high-altitude areas (TEMP -1.5°C) and in the northern Coast (TEMP +1.2°C). Radiation was also lower in the Northern high-altitude areas (RADPAR -5%) and higher in the northern Coast (RADPAR +5%).

Despite the unfavourable crop conditions observed for the Southern region, an increase in Biomass by 3% was calculated.  All other regions recorded a decrease in the biomass, especially in the Northern high-altitude areas, where the indicator decreased by 16%. CALF increased in all agroecological zones, having reached 100% in the Buzi Basin. The maximum VCIx was low in the Southern region, followed by the Buzi Basin, having respectively 0.75 and 0.89. Low VCIx in Southern region confirms the adverse weather conditions and their negative impacts on crops. 

Figure 3.31. Mozambique’s crop condition, October 2019 - January 2020

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                               (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA  (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI- Buzi basin     (g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI - Northern high altitude areas

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Lower Zambezi River basin (i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Northern coast region

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI - Southern region

(k) National time-series rainfall profiles  (l) National time-series temperature profiles

(m) Southen region time-series rainfall profiles

Table 3.53. Mozambique's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2019-January 2020

Table 3.54. Mozambique's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2019-January 2020