The previous bulletin covered the period from July to October 2019, which was the harvesting period for main cereals,  such as maize, wheat and rice, as well as the sowing period for second season maize. Cropping conditions were generally favorable in the different parts of the country.

Second season maize was the main crop in the fields during this reporting period (October to January). Harvest of the other crops, such as cassava in the south,  groundnuts, soybean ,sorghum and millet in the North was concluded by November. The conflict remains a big concern and continues to negatively impact food production and security in northern Sahel. Regarding agro-climatic indicators, the region received 282 mm of rainfall. This is an increase of 57% from the 15YA.  Temperature (TEMP) was 24.6ºC (-0.4ºC) and radiation was 1216 MJ/m2. The observed maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was 0.98 and the Biomass production potential was 313 gDM/m2 (+10% of departure from 5YA).  

From mid-October 2019, NDVI development graph and VCIx revealed above average crop conditions during the monitoring period across the country. Relatively better conditions, as compared to the average, were observed for the northern part. The NDVI spatial cluster indicates that only 10.9% of cropped land was below average. Generally, the crop conditions were favorable. 

Regional analysis

Based on its cropping systems, topographic conditions and climatic zones, Nigeria is divided into four agro-ecological zones (AEZ): 1) Sudano-Sahelian zone in the north with the driest climate,  2) Guinean Savanna, 3) Derived Savanna in the center and 4) Humid forest zone in the south.

The Sudano-Sahelian zone,

With its closeness to the Sahara desert, this is the driest AEZ . During this recent period, the average rainfall was 48 mm with a +276 % departure from the 15YA . The average temperature  was 24.3ºC (-0.2ºC).  1211 (MJ/m2) of radiation was observed (-4%). The total estimated biomass production was 178 gDM/m2 with increase of  +37%, and the  CALF was 71%  (+26 %). NDVI stayed above the average for the whole period. 

In the Guinean Savanna, the average precipitation was 148  mm with  a 163 % of departure above the 15YA. The current  temperature was 23.7 ºC (-4ºC) and the recorded  radiation was 1250 MJ/m2  (-3.2%). The estimated  biomass was 224 gDM/m2, a 9% decrease and CALF was 98%. The NDVI values were just above average in last four months and the maximum VCI for this region reached 0.96.

Derived Savanna, the transition zone  between Guinean savanna and Humid forest zones, received 363  mm of rainfall, a  +101% of departure compared to the 15YA. Average  temperature   was 24.8ºC (-0.5ºC), while the total radiation was 1213 (MJ/m2) (-2%).

Due to decline of rainfall, the total biomass production was 410 gDM/m2 with a reduction  by 22 % compared to the 5YA. The CALF was 99 %  which is the same as the 5YA  and maximum VCIx was 0.97. The NDVI values continued to be close to the 5YA until January. 

Humid forest AEZ,  known for its high precipitation, recorded  623  mm (+7%). The temperature was 25.7 ºC  (-0. 2ºC) and radiation (1166 MJ/m2) decreased (-0.2%). This might have caused a reduced estimate of biomass production (646 gDM/m2) (-10%). CALF and VCI continued to be high at 98% and 0.98 respectively. Trend in NDVI was below average during October but later in mid November went closer to the average. 

(a)  Phenology of main Crop

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI            (c) Maximum VCI

         (d) Rainfallindex                                                                  (e) Temperature index

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                    (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Soudano‐Sahelian region (left) and Guinean savanna (right))

(i)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (derived Savanna (left) and Humid forest zone (right)

Country agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2019 - January 2020

 Country agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures,  October 2019 to January 2020