This period covers the harvest of maize and rice in October, as well as the subsequent planting and vegetative growth of wheat. Crop conditions were generally favorable from October to January. 

Nationwide, RAIN (+149%) sharply increased, while TEMP (-1.3°C) and RADPAR (-8%) were lower as compared to the 15YA. Three agro-ecological regions had consistently excessive rainfall during this reporting period: The Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind (+518%), Northern Punjab (+318%) and Northern highlands (+78%) were above average.  Correspondingly, less sunshine and lower temperature were observed in these zones. The combination of all the agro-climatic indicators resulted in BIOMSS exceeding the recent five-year average by 113%. These favorable agroclimatic conditions benefited the germination and early growth of winter wheat.  

Crop conditions were above the maximum of the last five years starting in October, as shown by the NDVI development graph at the national level. Only 10% of the cropped areas were below average, mainly in north of Peshawar, west of Kohat and Bannu in Northern highlands zone, and some sporadically in Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind zone.  According to the spatial NDVI patterns and profiles, most of the Punjab and the Indus river basin, the two major wheat producing areas, had above average NDVI throughout the period. The national average of VCIx (1.02) is above the maximum of the last five years.  Winter wheat prospects are promising.

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based on geography and agro-climatic conditions: the Northern highlands, Northern Punjab region and the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind.

RAIN in the Northern highland region was 78% above average. RADPAR (-4%) was lower   and TEMP (+0.5°C) was higher. As a result, BIOMSS was 35% above average. The NDVI development graph showed above average crop conditions in this reporting period. VCIx with 1.02 indicated better conditions than in the previous five years. Planted area (CALF, 60%) was also high. 

Northern Punjab, the main agricultural region in Pakistan recorded the above average  RAIN (+318%). TEMP was below average by 1.8°C, and the RADPAR departure was -10%. The resulting BIOMSS exceeded the recent five-year average by 54%. Crop condition assessed through NDVI based crop development profiles showed high values in October. NDVI subsequently dropped to average in December and below average in January.  The area had a good CALF of 87% (18% above last five years' average) and a VCIx of 0.96. Overall, the crop production potential for the region is deemed to be favorable.

In the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind, RAIN was the highest among all regions, sharply  above average (+518%), while TEMP was below average by 0.9°C and RADPAR was lower than average. BIOMSS  was up by 212% as compared to the five-year average. In January, crop condition based on NDVI development profiles was close to average. The high CALF (75%) represented a large increase over the recent 5YA  (+29%); VCIx at 1.03 indicated favorable crop condition. Overall, prospects are favorable.

Figure 3.23 Pakistan crop condition, October 2019- January 2020

a) Phenology of major crops

b) NDVI profile                                             c) Time series rainfall profile         

d) Maximum VCI

e)  Spatial NDVI pattern compared to 5 YA                       f) NDVI profile

g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile (Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind)

h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile (Northern highlands)

i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile (Northern Punjab)

Table 3.56 Pakistan agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season value's and departure from 15YA (October 2019-January 2020)

Table 3.57 Pakistan agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season value's and departure from 15YA (October 2019-January 2020)