In Poland, the period covers the harvest of maize and the sowing of winter wheat in October 2019, and the early growth stages of winter wheat. Due to significant higher temperature (+2.2°C), national NDVI was above the maximum of the last 5 years from late November 2019 to January 2020, despite of a low rainfall (-20%). In this monitoring period, the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was close to average (100%) and VCIx was 1.02.

As shown by the crop condition development graph, sowing was concluded in October, mainly under favorable conditions. Temperatures and soil moisture conditions were favorable for early development of plants. However, temperature was close to the maximum of the last 15 years in December and significantly higher than average. This means that in Poland, crops are particularly vulnerable to frost damage in the event of a cold air intrusion. Furthermore, pest and disease pressure can be expected to be higher than usual following a mild winter. In addition, the drier than average weather mainly affected soil moisture and ground water replenishment, rather than having a direct impact on crops. The situation needs further monitoring.

REGIONAL ANALYSIS

Four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are examined more closely below. They include the Northern oats and potatoes areas (the northern half of: west Pomerania, eastern Pomerania and Warmia-Masuria), the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area (Kuyavia-Pomerania to the Baltic sea), the Central rye and potatoes area (Lubusz to South Podlaskie and northern Lublin), and the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area from southern Lower Silesia to southern Lublin and Subcarpathia along the Czech and Slovak borders. The listed administrative units correspond to voivodeships.

The Northern oats and potatoes area and the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area recorded both drier and warmer conditions compared to the average (RAIN -13% and -17%, TEMP +2.3°C and +2.2°C, respectively). RADPAR was below average in the two areas (-9% and -7%, respectively). The areas also had high CALF (100%) and VCIx (1.01 and 1.07). Crop conditions are satisfactory but need further monitoring.

Different from above two regions, RADPAR in Central rye and potatoes area and the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area was above average (+3% and +10%, respectively). Meanwhile, weather in the two regions was both drier and warmer than average (RAIN -25% and -15%, TEMP +2.2°C and +2.1°C, respectively). High CALF and VCIx were observed for both. The crop conditions are assessed as good for this period.

Figure 3.25a. Poland phenology of major crops

Figure 3.25b. Poland national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN, TEMP, comparing the October 2019 to January 2020 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure 3.25c. Poland maximum VCI for October 2019 to January 2020 by pixel

Figure 3.25d. Poland spatial NDVI patterns up to January 2020 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right).

Figure 3.25f. Northern oats and potatoes area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN, TEMP

Figure 3.25g. Northern-central wheat and sugar beet area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN, TEMP

Figure 3.25h. Central rye and potatoes area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN, TEMP

Figure 3.25i. Southern wheat and sugar beet area (Poland) crop condition development graph based on NDVI, RAIN, TEMP

Table 3.61. Poland agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2019 - January 2020

Table 3.62. Poland agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2019 - January 2020