This monitoring period covers the sowing of winter crops  (mainly winter wheat and barley) in October, followed by early vegetative growth and the subsequent dormant period. 

At the national level, the data show that in October NDVI was below the 5-year average. But from the beginning of November to the end of January it was equal to the 5-year maximum. 

Precipitation in October was higher than in previous year and just above the 15-year average. In November, it dropped below average, but recovered to similar levels as the 15YA starting from December. 

The temperature in October was close to the 15-year maximum. Then in November it dropped below the 15-year average, but starting from December, it reached close to maximum levels observed over the last 15 years.

Main regions of winter crop production (Central and Central black soil regions, Northern and Southern Caucasus, Middle Volga) showed positive NDVI departure with VCI above 0.8.

Due to a very warm winter, NDVI values were reaching the 5-year maximum. However, the lack of snow cover caused some concern, since it increased the risk of frost damage. Overall, the crop conditions in Russia were favorable during the monitoring period.

Regional analysis

In South Caucasus the amount of precipitation was below the 15-year average by 37%. The temperature was 1.2°C higher than the 15-year average.  RADPAR was 12% above 15-year average. As a result of warm weather, the biomass increased by 16% relative to the 15-year average. Cropped area was 36% above the 5-year average. The VCI was 0.93.

NDVI at the beginning of the period was equal to the 5-year average. In November it reached 5-year maximum and stayed at that level in December and January.

In Northern Caucasus precipitation decreased significantly (by 38% relative to the 15-year average). The temperature increased by 2.4°C compared to the 15-year average. RADPAR value was 13 % above to the 15-year average. Due to the increase in RADPAR and in temperature, biomass value increased by 32%. Cropped area was 59% above the 5-year average. The VCI was 0.95.

NDVI value in October exceeded the 5-year average, but did not reach a 5-year maximum. In early November, the NDVI reached a 5-year maximum, but before mid-December, it decreased and stayed between the 5-year average and the 5-year maximum. From mid-December to the end of the analyzed period, NDVI  was significantly higher than the 5-year maximum.

In Central Russia the temperature increased by 3.6°C relative to the 15-year average, and the amount of precipitation decreased by 2%. RADPAR decreased by 19%.  Decrease in RADPAR combined with lower precipitation resulted in biomass decrease by 4% as compared to the 15-year average.Cropped area was down by 3% compared the 5-year average. VCI index was 0.83.

At the beginning of the period, NDVI was below the 5-year average. But in mid-November, the NDVI exceeded the 5-year maximum. During December it was equal to the 5-year average and reached a 5-year maximum in January.

In Central black soils region the temperature in this period increased by 3.1°C compared to the 15-year average. Rainfall was 20% below 15-year average and RADPAR decreased by 4%. But the amount of biomass increased by 16%. Cropped area increased by 13% relative to the 5-year average. VCI was 0.90.

Throughout October, NDVI was below the 5-year average, but in November, it reached a 5-year maximum and by the middle of the month was well above that value. At the beginning of December, there was a sharp decline in NDVI value. It dropped below the 5-year average. But from mid-December to the end of this monitoring period, NDVI value was equal to the 5-year average.

In Middle Volga region temperature and rainfall increased by 2.8°C and 4% as compared to the 15YA. But RADPAR value decreased by 8%. Biomass increased by 9% compared to 15-year average. Cropped area was 23% above the 5-year average. VCI was 0.87.

For most of the period from October to November,  NDVI was equal to the 5-year maximum. Then it dropped and became equal to the 5-year average.

In Ural and western Volga region the amount of precipitation increased by 7% and the temperature was up by 2.3°C relative to the 15-year average. RADPAR was above the15-year average by 3%. Biomass increased by 26% compared to the 15-year average. Cropped area was 34% above the 5-year average. VCI was 0.83.

Between mid-November and January NDVI was at the 5-year average. In October and early February, it exceeded the 5-year average, but did not reach the 5-year maximum.

In Western Siberia rainfall increased by 21% and temperature increased by 2.6° C relative to the 15-year average. RADPAR decreased by 1%. Biomass increased by 17% relative to the 15-year average. Cropped area was 49% above the 5-year average. The VCI was 0.85.

Between October and December NDVI was equal to the 5-year average. An exception occurred in early November when the NDVI exceeded the 5-year  maximum.

In Middle Siberia the amount of precipitation decreased by 5% relative to the 15-year average, while the temperature increased by 0.7°C. RADPAR increased by 2%. Biomass was by 9% above the 15-year average. Cropped area increased by 102% compared the 5-year average.  VCI was 0.98.

In October NDVI exceeded the 5-year average and reached the 5-year maximum by the end of the month. From mid-November to mid-December, NDVI was below the 5-year average. But since mid-December, NDVI was equal to the 5-year average.

In Eastern Siberia the temperature increased by 0.5°C relative to the 15-year average, and the amount of precipitation decreased by 12 %. RADPAR increased by 4%. Biomass increased by 10% relative to the 15-year average. Cropped area was down  by 9% as compared to the 5-year average. VCI was 0.78.

In the period from October to early November and from mid-November to the end of January, the NDVI was below the 5-year average and below last year's level. It touched the 5-year average only in early November.

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA              (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern Caucasus (left) and Northern Caucasus (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Russia (left) and Central black soils area (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Middle Volga (left) and Ural and western Volga region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Western Siberia (left) and the Middle Siberia (right)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Siberia)

                  (h) Rainfall index                                             (i) Temperature index

Russia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA

 Russia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA/5YA