At the beginning of this reporting period, maize and rice harvests were reaching the completion, while winter wheat planting was in progress. NDVI was slightly lower than the five-year average during the monitoring period, execpt in late December and early January. Both temperature and radiation were above average (TEMP +1.2℃, RADPAR +4%), but rainfall was below average (RAIN, -14%). The resulting potential biomass was above average (BIOMSS, +9%). The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased by 3% and the maximum VCI (VCIx) was 0.74. 

The spatial NDVI patterns almost exactly correspond with the spatial distribution of VCIx. NDVI was close to or slightly above average in 16.2% of the croplands, mostly in the lowlands along the Syrian border and the Mediterranean, and the western parts including the provinces of Edirne, Kirklareli, Takirdag, Balikesir, Manisa, Izmir, Aydin, and Mugla. On the contrary, NDVI was below the average during the whole monitoring period in 59.5% of the croplands marked in light green and orange. These areas are mainly located in the midwestern and mideastern parts including the provinces of Eskiselir, Afyon, Isparta, Erzurum, Mus, ingol, Konya, Ankara, Kirikkale, Kisrsehir, Nevsehir, Aksaray, K.Maras, Diyarbakir, Malatya, Elazig, and Bingol, indicating below optimal crop conditions. Crop conditions of winter crops largely depend on the timely water supply after winter period. 

Regional analysis

The regional analysis covers four agro-ecological zones (AEZs): the Black Sea area, Central Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia and Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone. 

In the Black Sea zone, the NDVI was close to or slightly below average in October, early November, early December and late January, while the NDVI was above average in late November, late December, and early January. Radiation and temperature were well above average (RADPAR +6%, TEMP+ 1.4℃), and rainfall was below average (RAIN -15%), resulting in an average biomass. VCIx reached 0.94 and CALF was up 2%. 

The Central Anatolian region had below average NDVI during the monitoring period except late December. Both radiation and temperature were above average (RADPAR +4%, TEMP+ 1.4℃), while rainfall was below average (RAIN, -16%). The potential biomass production was above average (BIOMSS +4%), and CALF decreased by 9%.

In the Eastern Anatolian plateau,  the NDVI was below average from October to November, and then dropped in December. This zone experienced the highest precipitation shortage among the four AEZs (RAIN -23%). Weather was relatively warm (TEMP +1.0℃) while sunshine was good (RADPAR +5%). Biomass was up slightly (BIOMSS +5%) mainly because of favorable temperatures. The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was below average by 23%, indicating that the utilization rate of cultivated land is quite low.

As shown by the NDVI profile in the Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone, the NDVI was very close to average during the whole monitoring period. The rainfall was below average (RAIN -7%) with the smallest decline relative to the average among the four AEZs, while the radiation and temperature were above the average (RADPAR +3%, TEMP+ 1.2℃). Both BIOMSS and the CALF were up compared with its respective average, by 14% and 13%. The VCIx was 0.86. Crop production prospects are estimated to be favorable. 

Figure 3.39. Turkey’s crop condition, October 2019-January 2020

                                                      (a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (c) Time series rainfall profile

(d) Time series temperature profile                            (e)  Maximum VCI

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                       (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Black Sea region (left) and Central Anatolia region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Anatolia region (left) and Marmara_Agean_Mediterranean lowland region (right))

Table 3.69. Turkey’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2019-January 2020

Table 3.70. Turkey’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA/5YA, October 2019-January 2020