The current reporting period corresponds to the sowing and early growth stages of maize and soybean, while wheat was harvested by the end of November. Rainfall was close to the average of the last 15 years with 268 mm. It was warmer  (+0.2°C) and sunnier with RADPAR at + 3%. These weather conditions led to an increase in the estimated BIOMSS by 2%, and 79% of the cropland area was cultivated, with a 29% increase in cropped area as compared to the last 5 years average.  

Generally, the crop conditions based on the NDVI graph were below average until the end of December and then improved to above average in January. This was not the case for all cropped areas since the NDVI clustering map indicated that the conditions of 36.7% of the cropped area remained below the average during the whole period.These areas are mostly located in coastal regions in the Eastern and Western Cape provinces and showed a low value of VCIx (< 0.5) based on the VCIx map; however, the nationwide maximum VCI was high (0.91).

All these CropWatch parameters indicated high variability, but overall favorable conditions. The best conditions were observed for the northeastern provinces, which are known for the predominant maize cultivation. The recent above average rainfalls were beneficial for the summer crops and the sowing progress was 31% in advance compared to the same period last year. CropWatch forecasts a good maize production prospect for this season. The coastal regions in Eastern and Western Cape presented below average NDVI indicating low wheat output which was harvested by the end of 2019.  

Regional Analysis

CropWatch adopts three agro‐ecological zones (AEZs) relevant for crop production in South‐Africa. The first zone is the Humid Cape Fold Mountains; the second zone is the Mediterranean zone, while the third zone is the Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas, by far the most relevant zone in terms of food production.

In the Humid Cape Fold Mountain zone, a drop in rainfall by 12% below the average has occurred with an increase of the average temperature by 0.4 °C and 4% above average RADPAR. The reduction in rainfall with this hot and sunny weather was leading to below-average crop conditions during October and November and then turned to be close to average in December and above-average crop conditions in January. The impact of rainfall reduction was not significant since the CropWatch agronomic measures indicated that the BIOMSS was 1% above the average and the maximum VCI value was high (0.86).

In the Mediterranean zone, the average rainfall was 28% above the average, and the temperature was colder by 0.4°C. The RADPAR was also 1% below the average. However, the nationwide NDVI shows that the zone well known for wide cultivation of wheat was at the end of growing season and by the end of November, all wheat had already been harvested. The conditions based on the NDVI graph were above the average, except in October. The CALF indicated that only 36% of the cropland area in the zone was cultivated with a reduction in the cropped area by 40% compared to the last 5 years average.  Hence, the estimated BIOMSS was 2% below the average and the VCIx value was low (0.32).

In Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas, the average rainfall was higher by 4% compared to the average, and the temperature rose by 0.3 °C with sunny weather (RADPAR, 4% above average). This zone is the main zone for maize cultivation and these favorable weather conditions led to an increase in estimated BIOMSS by 3% and high VCIx value (0.99). These conditions were not so great at the beginning of the reporting period since the NDVI graph that describes crop conditions indicated below-average conditions in October and November but subsequently the conditions improved by December and reached maximum values by the end of January.

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Time series profiles of precipitation (left) and temperature (right)

(c) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                                        (d) Maximum VCI

(e) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                     (f) NDVI profiles

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Humid Cape Fold Mountains (left) and for Mediterranean zone (right)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas

South Africa’s agroclimatic indicators by sub‐national regions,current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2019 – January 2020

South Africa’s agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions,current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2019 – January 2020