2.7 Central Europe to Western Russia

This monitoring period covers the dormant winter season and spring green-up of winter cereals in Central Europe and the western Russia MPZ. Sowing of the summer crops started in April. Generally, agroclimatic variables demonstrated average conditions for rainfall (-1%), temperature (+2.9ºC), and RADPAR (-0.7%). Crop conditions were generally normal, but good rainfalls are needed during the remainder of the wheat growing season to ensure yields.

Based on the spatial distribution map of rainfall departure, the precipitation in most areas of the MPZ fluctuated around the mean, however, the period from mid March to mid April was below average in all regions. From February to early April 2020, the precipitation in southern Poland, southern Ukraine, Moldova, and Romania (37.5% of the MPZ) continued to decline. In the northwest of the MPZ (25.4% of the total area) precipitation was below average from mid-March to early April. This includes the northwest of Poland, the north of Ukraine, the south of Belarus and parts of the west of Russia. From mid-January to early March (25.5% of the MPZ), the regions with higher than average precipitation were located in western Russia.

Temperatures were above average until mid March, when they started to drop to below average levels. This slowed growth in April. On average, temperatures in the main production area were higher (+ 2.9℃) than the 15YA. According to the temperature departure map, in early January, except for western Romania and western Russia (12.4% of the MPZ), temperatures were above average. From late January to the mid-April, the temperatures of the MPZ began to decline, and the lowest temperature departure value was nearly 3.8℃. The areas of lower temperature are located in the southeast of Belarus and parts of western Russia (20.1%). 

CropWatch calculated that BIOMSS was 2% below the 15YA. The spatial distribution of BIOMSS showed that in the MPZ, the lowest BIOMSS (-20% and below) occurred in western Russia, Belarus and Northern Romania. In contrast, the highest BIOMSS (10% and above) was concentrated in Poland and Ukraine. From January 1 to April 30, the cropped arable lands proportion was 57% (-10% below average). The uncropped areas are mainly distributed in the southwest of Russia, some in the central and eastern Ukraine. They are consistent with the spatial distribution of BIOMSS.

The average value of maximum VCI was 0.83, and values higher than 0.8 were observed in western MPZ (Poland), and northeastern MPZ. Although the potential biomass was above average, the VCIx in Ukraine was lower. This is also proved by the distribution map of Minimum VHI,  which demonstrated that some severe drought areas are located in the central and western MPZ (western Russia, central Ukraine and to some extent western Romania). Mostly drought-free conditions were observed for Poland and Belarus.

In brief, based on the results of CropWatch agroclimatic and agronomic indicators during the monitoring period, the condition of winter crops in the Central Europe and western Russia MPZ are normal, except for Ukraine, and the crop yields are expected to be normal.

Figure 2.6 Central Europe-Western Russia MPZ: Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, January-April 2020.

a. Spatial distribution of rainfall profiles                            b. Profiles of rainfall departure from average (mm)

c. Spatial distribution of temperature profiles              d. Profiles of temperature departure from average (℃)

e. Maximum VCI                                                             f. Cropped arable land

g. Biomass accumulation potential departure             h. VHI minimum