Chapter 3. Main producing and exporting countries

3.1 Overview

1. Introduction

Chapter 1 has focused on large climate anomalies that sometimes reach the size of continents and beyond. The present section offers a closer look at individual countries, including the 42 countries that together produce and commercialize 80 percent of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. As evidenced by the data in this section, even countries of minor agricultural or geopolitical relevance are exposed to extreme conditions and deserve mentioning, particularly when they logically fit into larger patterns.

1. Introduction

The global agro-climatic patterns that emerge at the MRU level (chapter 1) are reflected with greater spatial detail at the national and sub-national administrative levels described in this chapter. The “core countries”, including major producing and exporting countries are all the object of a specific and detailed narrative in the later sections of this chapter, while China is covered in Chapter 4. Sub-national units and national agro- ecological zones receive due attention in this chapter as well.

In many cases, the situations listed below are also mentioned in the section on disasters (chapter 5.2) although extreme events tend to be limited spatially, so that the statistical abnormality is not necessarily reflected in the climate statistics that include larger areas. No attempts are normally made, in this chapter, to identify global patterns that were already covered in Chapter 1. The focus is on 166 individual countries and sometimes their subdivisions for the largest ones. Some of them are relatively minor agricultural producers at the global scale, but their national production is nevertheless crucial for their population, and conditions may be more extreme than among the large producers.

2. Overview of weather conditions in major agricultural exporting countries

The current section provides a short overview of prevailing conditions of maize, rice, wheat and soybeans in a group of just 20 countries, conventionally taken as the major exporters, with each of them exporting at least one million tons of the covered commodities. They include the top 10 exporters in the world, with the United States and Argentina exporting all four crops, and Brazil, Ukraine and Russia exporting three of them each.

Figure 3.1. National and subnational rainfall anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) of October 2019 to January 2020 total relative to the 2005-2019 average (15YA), in percent.

Figure 3.2. National and subnational temperatute rainfall anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) of October 2019 to January 2020 average relative to the 2005-2019 average (15YA), in °C.

Figure 3.3. National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the RADPAR indicator) of October 2019 to January 2020 total relative to the 2005-2019 average (15YA), in percent.

Figure 3.4. National and subnational biomass production potential anomaly (as indicated by the BIOMSS indicator) of October 2019 to January 2020 total relative to the 2005-2019 average (15YA), in percent.

Maize: 

Maize exports are dominated by just 4 countries: USA, Brazil, Argentina and the Ukraine. Together, they supply three quarters of maize being traded internationally. Apart from Argentina and Brazil, the other relevant countries where the crops were in the field during this monitoring period were India, Paraguay and South Africa. Brazil and Argentina experienced near average conditions. In Argentina, RAIN  was above average (+5.7%), whereas for Brazil, a slight deficit (-1.9%) was observed. Temperatures and radiation were close to the 15YA. Calculated Biomass was below the 15YA for Argentina (-2.6%) and Brazil (-5.3%). Both countries had a slightly higher CALF. Rainfall was below average in April in Mato Grosso  and Goias. This may hamper the yields of second season maize crops. However, overall total maize production in these two countries can be expected to be close to average. India, the 10th largest exporter, experienced abundant winter rains (+26.6%) and slightly cooler (-0.8ºC) and cloudier conditions (RADPAR -4.7%). Estimated biomass was 28.9% above average. For Paraguay, the conditions were less favorable, due to less rainfall (381 mm), which was 26.4% below average. However, this was still deemed sufficient and biomass estimation was  -1.5% only. South Africa is the largest maize exporter in Africa. All meteorological conditions were close to normal and biomass departure from the 15YA was +1%. In addition, an +8.5% increase in CALF for that country was observed. All in all, conditions for maize production in the major exporting countries were favorable.

Maize planting started in April in north America and Europe. So far, weather conditions have been favorable. In the USA, they are much better than they were a year ago. In the Ukraine and most of Europe, conditions were drier than usual in April. On the upside, this should have allowed for good trafficability. Moisture conditions in May will be key to good plant establishment. 

Rice: 

India is the largest rice exporter. The region of irrigated winter season (Boro) rice production is limited to West Bengal, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Assam. Boro rice yields are much higher than those obtained in the Kharif (rainy) season, because farmers have control over the flooding depth. This enables them to grow modern, high yielding varieties. Above average rainfall during last year's monsoon and this monitoring period (+26.6% between January and April 2020) filled the water reservoirs. Farmers could not only expand the cultivated area, but also had more water available for irrigation during the growing season. According to CropWatch, both BIOMSS (+28.9%) and CALF (+37.7%) were above the average for India. Boro rice reached maturity in late April and early May. The country-wide lock-down may have caused a shortage of farm-hands for timely harvest (See Chapter 5.2 on Disasters for more details). 

The other large rice exporter in South Asia, Pakistan, which ranks in the 4^th position of exporting countries, grows rice during the rainy season only. For South-East Asia, winter season rice production is important. Thailand and Vietnam rank in the 2^nd and the 3^rd position of exporting countries. After a good rice harvest from the last Kharif season, the situation was rather dire for most rice producing regions in South-East Asia. Most of them depend on a steady supply of water from the Mekong River for irrigation. Record low water levels of the Mekong, mostly man-made, were reported for Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. Thailand had to restrict irrigation in order to preserve water for human consumption. Rainfall reached only 164 mm (-39.8%) in Thailand and 274 mm (-7.1%) in Viet Nam. However, in Vietnam the rainfall deficit occurred mostly in the South, whereas in the North, rains were close to normal. For Thailand, BIOMSS was -3.6% and CALF -5.3%, while for Vietnam, BIOMSS was -8.1% and CALF unchanged. Cambodia was another country that was hard hit. CALF was -17.7%. A more detailed discussion on the conditions for rice production in South Asia can be found in Chapter 5.2. Conditions for the other important rice producing countries and regions, such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Southern Africa, Argentina and Brazil were generally favorable. 

Wheat

In Australia, Canada, Russia and Kazakhstan, spring wheat sowing started in April and usually lasts until late May or early June. So far, conditions for sowing were favorable. Russia (+17.1%), the largest wheat exporter, Canada (+4.5%) and Kazakhstan (+27.1%) experienced above-average rainfall. Australia seems to be recovering from its drought conditions (RAIN +17.2%). So far, conditions have been favorable for these countries. 

China and India are the top wheat producers, but most of their production is used for domestic consumption. India had a close-to-record harvest, due to high rainfall (+26.6%)  and expanded area (CALF +37.1%). Similar to India, wheat production in China is also mostly irrigated, but above average rainfall  (+19.7%) helped sustain good conditions for production. Unlike these two countries, most wheat production in the USA is rainfed. Rainfall was above average (+17.4%) in most regions, except for Colorado and north-west Oklahoma. These regions already experienced drier conditions last fall, which hindered good crop establishment. A cold snap in the southern plains in April may have caused some yield reductions as well. CALF for the USA was -2.6%, with wheat being the major crop in the field during this monitoring period. This indicates that the wheat area might be slightly reduced. For these reasons, an average production can be expected for the USA. Most of Europe experienced favorable winter rains until early March, followed by a sunny dry spell of 2 months. Some rains were recorded again in late April. Total rainfall (RAIN) from January to April deviated only slightly: France  (– 2.1%) and (+4%) for Germany. Nevertheless, lower wheat yields are to be expected for western Europe. Similarly, the Ukraine also experienced drier-than-normal conditions (RAIN -25.4%). A severe drought will force Morocco (RAIN -20.9%) and Algeria (RAIN -15.2%) to import more wheat than usual. Apart from the Ukraine and North Africa, conditions were normal to favorable and an above-average wheat production can be expected for 2020. 

Soybean

In the USA, Canada and the Ukraine, soybean sowing started at the end of this monitoring period, in late April. Soil moisture conditions seem to be favorable for the USA and Canada, whereas they were drier than usual in parts of the Ukraine. Conditions in May will determine the area planted and crop establishment. 

Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay produce more than half of the world's soybeans traded on the international market. Rio Grande do Sul,  Brazil's third largest soybean producer, behind Mato Grosso and Parana suffered from drought conditions in February. Similarly, Santa Fe province in Argentina was also affected by a dry spell. Conditions in the other soybean regions were normal. CALF was high in Argentina (98.1, +0.3) and Brazil (99.9, +0.7). This indicates a high acreage and thus a large production volume. So all in all, prospects for the 2020 soybean yields are favorable.