Winter and spring wheat are the main cereals sown in Afghanistan. Most winter wheat is grown in the northern border provinces. Harvest is in May. Spring wheat was planted between March and April. The precipitation in Afghanistan was 25% higher than the 15YA. Both temperature and sunshine were below average (TEMP 4.8°C,  -0.4°C; RADPAR 912MJ/m², -6%). The resulting estimate of biomass production was close to average.  The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased by 32%, and the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was 0.81. According to crop condition development graphs based on NDVI, the national crop growth was below the five-year average from January to early March and then recovered to the above-average level in April. Crop conditions were above average throughout the reporting period on 47.7% of crop lands, mainly in the northern part of Kandahar, the northern border areas of Badghis and west of Faryab. Crop conditions below average were scattered in 29% of crop land between January and April, mainly in Takhar, Kunduz, Ghor, Ghazni and Wardak provinces. According to the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx), the vegetation in the South was better than in the North. Wheat grew well during the monitoring period and above average output is expected.

Regional Anlaysis

CropWatch subdivides Afghanistan into four zones based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topography. They are described below as Dry region, Central region with sparse vegetation, Mixed dry farming and Irrigated cultivation region, and Mixed dry farming and grazing region.

The RAIN in the Central region with sparse vegetation was 337 mm, +21%; TEMP was -0.3°C, and the RADPAR was 942 MJ/m2 (-5%). According to the crop condition development graph, NDVI was far below average in January. Since February, NDVI has increased rapidly and exceeded the average in April. The potential biomass decreased by 15%.

The Dry region recorded 303 mm of RAIN (+36%), TEMP was 7.5°C (-0.9°C), and RADPAR was 1001 MJ/m2 (-5%). VCIx was 0.87, and the potential biomass increased by 8%. In this region, the rainy season ends in April.

In the Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region the following indicator values were observed: RAIN 504 mm (+22%); TEMP 3.2°C (-0.2°C) and RADPAR 830MJ/m2 (-7%). Potential biomass and CALF in this area were the highest among the four regions. CALF was 24% higher than average. Abundant rainfall and higher CALF improved production prospects in this AEZ , where VCIx reached 0.73. The agro-climatic conditions were favorable for crop growth.

The Mixed dry farming and grazing region recorded 285 mm of RAIN, 30% above average, TEMP was 5.8°C (-0.4°C)  and RADPAR was 938 MJ/m2  (-5%). According to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were lower than the five-year average from January to March and reached the average after March. CALF in this region was at 16% and VCIx reached 0.84. The warmer and rainy weather will promote crop growth.  

Figure 3.6. Afghanistan’s crop condition, January to April 2020

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA  (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (central_Sparse_Veg Region (left) and Mixed_Farming_Graze Region (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Mixed_Dry_IrrigatedRegion (left) and Dry (right))

(f) Rainfall profiles 

 (g) Temperature profiles

Table 3.1 Afghanistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, January 2020 - April 2020

Table 3.2 Afghanistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January 2020 - April 2020