Winter wheat was the major crop in the field during this monitoring period. Spring wheat sowing started in March. Rainfall (-15%) was below the 15YA, whereas solar radiation (RADPAR +2%) and temperature (+2.8°C) were above average. This resulted in a slightly lower than average potential biomass (-1.2%). Agronomic indicators showed a satisfactory maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx 0.8) while the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) decreased by 8% to 80%. The NDVI profile shows that the crop growth status was above average until March, when it started to fall to below average levels, presumably due to low rainfall.  The spatial patterns of NDVI profiles show that around 59.5% of cropped areas eventually reached the 5-year average, except for some places in southeast and middle west (Gomel and Minsk Oblasts). In south-eastern and central areas (Mogilev and Minsk Oblasts) VCIx was between 0.5-0.8, while the value was above 0.8 in the west (Oblats of Grodno and Brest). At the end of this monitoring period, winter wheat was at a normal condition, however, more rains will be needed to ensure good yields. 

Regional analysis

Based on cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, regional analyses are provided for three agro-ecological zones (AEZ), including Northern Belarus (028, Vitebsk, northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev), Central Belarus (027, Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev and Southern Belarus (029) which includes the southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions.

Northern Belarus suffered deficits in both rainfall (-8%) and radiation (-4%), while temperature was well above average (+3.2°C). The dry condition resulted in a potential biomass decrease by 8%. Agronomic indicators showed that CALF fell 5%, while VCIx reached a moderate value (0.82). Starting from March, the regional NDVI development curve stayed slightly below the long-term average, but the overall crop growth of the area was close to normal. 

Central Belarus was also affected by low precipitation (18% lower), while temperature (2.6°C higher) and photosynthetically active radiation (+5%) were above the 15YA. The VCIx had reached 0.79, and CALF had reached 82%. Therefore, the potential biomass was expected to increase slightly (2%). Similar to northern Belarus, the NDVI growth curve remained close to the average trend starting from March.

Precipitation in southern Belarus was significantly lower by 26%, while temperature and radiation were higher by 2.5°C and 8%, respectively. Potential biomass was expected to increase by 5%. The CALF and the VCIx were79% and 0.79 respectively. Although agronomic indicators showed that crop growth was generally favorable during the monitoring period, the impact of water shortage on the crops in subsequent months requires close attention.

Figure 3.10 Belarus’s crop condition, January – April 2020

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA           (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall time series 

 (g) Temperature time series

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North Belarus)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Belarus)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-west Belarus)

Table 3.11 Belarus’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, January – April 2020.

Table 3.12 Belarus’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January – April 2020.