During this reporting period, the rice and main season maize in Central and Southern Brazil as well as soybean reached maturity stage and the harvests almost concluded by the end of April. Rice in north and northeast and second maize in Central and Southern Brazil were still at the peak growing stage. The sowing of maize in the northeast and wheat in the south started in April. Generally, crop conditions in Brazil were close to average compared to the previous five years.

Agro-climatic indicators present generally close to average conditions with 2% lower rainfall, 0.1℃ higher temperature and 1% above average RADPAR. Slightly below average rainfall resulted in 4% reduction of potential biomass compared with the 15YA. According to the national rainfall profiles, the 10-days accumulations of rainfall also show overall average conditions from January to April 2020. However, significant differences were identified among the provinces or agro-ecological zones (AEZs). Rainfall among the provinces ranged from 215 mm in Rio Grande Do Sul to 1451 mm in Para. Largest rainfall departure from the 15YA was also observed in Rio Grande Do Sul. Santa Catarina, Parana, Mato Grosso Do Sul, and Sao Paulo also suffered from water shortage with 42%, 41%, 20% and 17% less rainfall, respectively. Temperature was overall close to average except for Rio De Janeiro with 1.0 degree lower than the 15YA. Among the major agricultural producing provinces, large departures were observed in Parana and Santa Catarina (+9%)  and Minas Gerais (-7%). Radiation was the most limiting factor for biomass accumulation during the reporting period, reflected by negative radiation departures resulting in below average biomass. Large negative departures of rainfall also hampered the biomass accumulation and resulted in low biomass compared with the 15YA in Sao Paulo, Rio Grande Do Sul, Parana and Santa Catarina.

The crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Brazil presents slightly below-average values throughout the reporting period mainly because of drought situations in southern Brazil. According to the NDVI departure clustering maps and profiles, below-average conditions were mostly located in Southern Brazil including Sao Paulo, Rio Grande Do Sul, Parana and Santa Catarina since February. Those areas mentioned above coincided with the areas with relatively low VCIx values (below 0.8). Scattered areas in East Coast and Eastern of Amazon presented below-average crop conditions in January and February. Two new graphs (figure o and p) were added to reflect the proportion of different categories of crop condition and drought, respectively. According to the two graphs, late January 2020 is a hot spot period with almost 50% of cropland at below-average situation. National VCIx is 0.96 and CALF is 1% above average. As for the provinces, Rio Grande Do Sul is the only one with VCIx below 0.85 (value at 0.81). It is noteworthy that CALF was below average only in two provinces (Amapa and Acre) while all other provinces presented an above-average CALF. All in all, crop conditions in Brazil were close to average and CropWatch estimates favorable outputs for soybean and average outputs for maize.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are identified for Brazil. These include the Central Savanna, the east coast, Parana river, Amazon zone, Mato Grosso zone, Southern subtropical rangelands, mixed forest and farmland, and the Nordeste. Four zones received below-average rainfall, including Amazon, Mato Grosso, Parana Basin and Southern subtropical rangelands. The last three zones suffered persistent dry conditions since the last reporting period. The dry situation negatively impacted the crop development and resulted in below-average crop conditions. Above-average rainfall was observed in Central Savanna, Coast, Northeastern mixed forest and farmland, and Nordeste. Nordeste and Parana basin are the only two zones with below-average temperatures. The largest temperature anomaly was identified in Southern subtropical rangelands with 0.5 degree above average. Radiation anomalies were negatively correlated with rainfall departures. The largest departures of radiation were found in Central Savanna and Coast with 6% and 7% below teh 15YA. By integration of rainfall, temperature and radiation, achievable biomass is simulated and compared to the last 15YA. Large BIOMSS departures were also found in Central Savanna and Coast with 12% below 15YA mainly due to the lack of radiation. Mato Grosso is the only province in Brazil presenting above-average level of biomass (+1%). All zones in Brazil presented average or above average CALF. VCIx of southern subtropical rangelands was only 0.74 while VCIx of all other zones presented values higher than 0.95.

Normal or favorable agro-climatic conditions in Mato Grosso, Nordeste, Central Savanna, and Coast resulted in average to above-average crop condition as indicated by the NDVI based crop development profiles in the four zones. Crop conditions in the Nordeste were above the 5YA and the 5 year maximum values. CropWatch has produced average to favorable production forecasts for these four zones.

NDVI was significantly below average according to the NDVI-based development profiles in Amazonas, Northeastern mixed forest and farmland, Parana basin, and Southern subtropical rangelands. The below-average crop conditions mostly resulted from water shortages, but the impacts were different. Drought in Amazonas and Northeastern mixed forest and farmland affected the second maize outputs while low rainfall in the Parana basin mostly affected main maize and soybean at later growth stages. The crops in Southern subtropical rangelands are out of the growing season, but the continuous dry and hot weather might potentially affect the sowing and early growing stages of the wheat in the coming season.

Figure 3.8. Brazil crop condition, January - April 2020

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI_Brazil

(c) Time series rainfall profile_Brazil

(d) Spatial distribution of NDVI departure profiles

(e) Maximum VCI

(f) Potential biomass departure from 5YA

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Southern subtropical rangelands

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Parana basin

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Northeastern mixed forest and farmland

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Nordeste

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Mato Grosso

(L) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Coast

(m) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Central Savanna

(n) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Amazonas

(o) Proportion of NDVI anomaly categories compared with 5YA from January - April 2020

(p) Proportion of drought categories from January - April 2020

Table 3.xx Brazil agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2020

Table 3.xx Brazil agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, January - April 2020