The current reporting period covers the overwintering and stem elongation stage of winter wheat in Canada.  Sowing of maize, soybean, and spring wheat will predominantly take place in May. According to the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the crop condition of current winter crops is below last year's and the 5-year average, but reached almost average values by the end of April. 

Winter wheat accounts for less than 15% of agricultural land. It is mainly grown in Ontario and Quebec, followed by Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba provinces. In general, above-average precipitation and temperatures occurred in Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Precipitation was above the recent 15-year average by 7%, 11%, 17%, and 3% respectively. Temperatures were above average by 1.6℃, 1.4℃, 0.8℃, and 0.1℃. But photosynthetically active radiation was below average by 11%, 4%, 9% and 1%. 

Below-average PAR resulted in a reduction of potential biomass. Compared to the 15YA, biomass in Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba and Saskatchewan was below average by 15%, 6%, 15% and 3% respectively. Only a small portion of agricultural land was cropped. As compared to the 5YA, CALF dropped by 31%.

Overall, the current wheat production prospects show that the crop seems to be behind in its development due to cooler than normal temperatures during the spring green-up phase in April. At the end of this monitoring period, wheat had almost caught up with the 5YA. Conditions could become favorable in the coming months depending on the weather.

Regional analysis

Although Canada is divided into five agro-ecological zones, winter crops in this monitoring period are mainly distributed in the Prairies (area identified as 53 in the maximum VCI map) and Saint Lawrence basin (49, covering Ontario and Quebec).

[Prairies] In the Prairies, precipitation was above average (RAIN 189 mm, +3%), while the temperature and radiation were slightly lower than the 15-year average（TEMP -0.3°C; RADPAR -1%. As a result of the lower temperature and radiation, the potential biomass was slightly below the 15-year average as well (-5%). At the same time, the Cropped Arable Land Fraction fell significantly below the 5YA (CALF, -74%). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that spring green up was delayed. Accordingly, VCIx (0.73) was also relatively low. However, prospects are still favorable.

[Saint Lawrence basin] In the Saint Lawrence basin, the main winter wheat production area in Canada, precipitation and temperature were above the 15-year average (RAIN 439 mm, +4%; TEMP +1.0°C), which was favorable for the growth of winter wheat. However, RADPAR was below the average (-4%), which caused BIOMSS estimation to be lower than the 15-year average (-7%). The Cropped Arable Land Fraction fell below the 5-year average (CALF, -8%), and the VCIx was 0.76. The NDVI values from late March to April were close to the last 5-year average. Therefore, prospects are still favorable for winter wheat in this region. 

 Figure 3.12 Canada’s crop condition, January - April 2020

                                                                (a). Phenology of major crops

     (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI     (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                        (e) NDVI profiles

  (f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Canadian Prairies region (left) and Saint Lawrence basin region (right))

Table 3.15 Canada’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2020

Table 3.16 Canada agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA/15YA, January - April 2020