This reporting period covers January to April, which coincides with the short rainy season (Belg) in central and southeastern Ethiopia.  The sowing of Meher (main season) maize started in the central and southeastern Oromia regions. At the national level, the agro-climatic and agronomic indicators were above the 15 year average: RAIN, +54%, BIOMASS +8%, and CALF +35%, whereas the temperatures (TEMP -0.2°C) and RADPAR  (-4%) were slightly below average. As a result of the increase in rainfall starting in mid April, farmers were able to start land preparation for the main season crops. NDVI was also considerably above average, which together with a maximum VCI value of 0.98, indicated  good conditions. Based on NDVI clusters only 16% of the cropland had slightly below-average conditions, whereas the remainder was above average. In general, prospects for the Meher season are favorable.  Higher rainfall also has a positive effect on feed supply for the draft animals used for land preparation.

Regional analysis

The monitoring period covers main rain-fed cereal producing areas found in the Southeastern mixed-maize zone, Western mixed maize zone, and the Central-northern maize-teff highlands zone.

The South-eastern mixed maize zone

Based on CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, rainfall was recorded at 407 mm (+77%). Temperature and RADPAR were near average. As a result, the total biomass production increased by 5% compared to the 15 YA.  CALF was 58% above average. The crop condition development graph based on NDV was also above the five-year average. Maximum VCI was 1.04. The conditions were favorable.

In the Western mixed maize zone, except for temperature, all CropWatch agronomic and agroclimatic indicators were above average. Total rainfall was 219 mm  (+21%). Both the potential biomass (+15%) and CALF (+5%) were above average. However, the temperature was  cooler (-0.6°C) and RADPAR unchanged.  VCIx was at 0.90. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI was above average from January to Mid-March and then fell below average. Overall, based on all indicators, the conditions were favorable for land preparation and building up of favorable soil moisture levels for the coming Meher season.  

In the in Central-northern maize-teff highlands zone conditions were favorable as well: Rain (183 mm +58%) was above average and temperatures remained near average. Resulting biomass was 8% above the 15YA. CALF also showed a significant increase of 64%.  The NDVI profile and the maximum VCI of 0.98 were also favorable. Similar to the other zones, the condition were conducive for sowing and land preparation for the Meher season. 

                                                        Figure 3.15 Ethiopia's crop condition, January -April 2020

                                                                                 (a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                     (c) Maximum CVI

 (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                         (e) NDVI profile

          (f) Rainfall profiles                                                              (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-eastern mixed maize zone (left) and Western mixed maize zone (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central-northern maize-Teff highlands)

Table 3.21 Ethiopia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2020

Table 3.22 Ethiopia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from
5YA/5YA, January - April 2020