This monitoring period covers most of the wheat and winter (Rabi) rice growing periods. Harvest for both crops was mostly completed by the end of April. Crop conditions were generally above average and even above the 5-year maximum during this reporting period, as indicated by the graph of NDVI development at the national level.

 The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that nationwide TEMP and RADPAR were close to average (-0.8 °C and -5%, respectively). India recorded abundant RAIN (+27%) after February, which exceeded the 15-year average for the same monitoring period, resulting in a BIOMSS increase by 29% compared with 15YA. Moreover, the overall VCIx was high, with a value of 1.11. As can be seen from the spatial distribution, only the southern, northeast and northwest recorded low values (less than 0.8). Most of India had high values in VCIx. These spatial patterns of VCIx were thus generally consistent with those of NDVI. Only 28.3% of the area recorded below-average crop conditions, in contrast, 71.7% of crop planted areas experienced continuously above-average crop conditions. CALF increased by 38% compared to 5YA. Crop production for this season is estimated to be above average. 

Regional analysis

India is divided into eight agro-ecological zones: the Deccan Plateau (94), the Eastern coastal region (95), the Gangetic plain (96), Assam and north-eastern regions (97), Agriculture areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat (98), the Western coastal region (99), the North-western dry region (100) and the Western Himalayan region(101).

The four agro-ecological zones of the Deccan Plateau, the Gangetic plain, Agriculture areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat, and the North-western dry region have similar trends in agricultural indices. Compared to the same period of previous years, RAIN had increased significantly, especially in the Gangetic plain and the North-western dry region (more than +150%). Although TEMP and RADPAR were lower, abundant rainfall compensated for their effects and caused BIOMSS to be much higher than the 15-year average. At the same time, CALF also increased, and in the North-western dry region CALF increased by 82%. The highest increases had been observed for the Deccan Plateau and agricultural areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat (more than +50%) as well. The VCIx was high  (1.07). The graph of NDVI development shows that the crop growth of these four agro-ecological regions during this monitoring period exceeded the 5-year maximum in most months. Generally, the crop production is expected to be above average.

The Eastern coastal region and the Western coastal region recorded similar trends of agricultural indices in this monitoring period. Compared to the same period of previous years, RAIN had decreased significantly, especially for the Western coastal region (-40%). Although TEMP were slightly different with -0.4°C in the Eastern coastal region and about average (+0.1°C) in the Western coastal region, and RADPAR were lower, the BIOMSS still increased. Both regions recorded high increases of CALF, especially in the Western coastal region (+65%). VCIx was higher than 1.05. The graph of NDVI development shows that the crop growth for the two regions exceeded the 5-year maximum. The crop production is expected to be above average.

The Assam and Northeastern region recorded 358 mm of RAIN (+12%), with lower average TEMP at 17.4°C (-0.9°C) and RADPAR of 1052.5 MJ/m² (-4%). BIOMSS was lower than the average (-4%). Increased rainfall was not enough to compensate for reduced temperature and sunshine. CALF reached 93% which was above average (+2%), and VCIx was 0.89. The outlook of crop production in this region is average.

The Western Himalayan region recorded 467 mm of RAIN (+35% higher the average), with much lower average TEMP at 7.8°C (-2.0°C) and RADPAR of 995 MJ/m² (-5%). The BIOMSS was higher than the average (+12%) due to the sufficient rainfall. CALF reached 86% and VCIx was 0.93. Crop condition as assessed by NDVI was above the 5-year average after February and even exceeded the 5-year maximum in March. Therefore, the crop production is favorable.

Figure 3.20. India’s crop condition, January – April 2020

                                                (a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI       (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles

                (f) Rainfall profiles                                               (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Deccan Plateau (left) and Eastern Coastal Region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Gangetic Plains (left) and Assam and north-eastern regions (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Agriculture areas in Rajasthan and Gujarat (left) and Western Coastal Region (right))

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North-western dry region (left) and Western Himalayan Region (right))

Table 3.31. India’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January – April 2020

 Table 3.32. India’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January – April 2020