The crop conditions improved from below average in January and February to average in March and above average in April. Above average rainfall in late March and April combined with temperatures that were slightly below average produced favorable conditions for crop growth. This monitoring period covers the vegetative and early reproductive phases of winter wheat. Rice planting started in April. Accumulated rainfall was significantly above average, (RAIN +47%) while temperature (TEMP -0.5°C) and radiation (RADPAR -5%) were below average over the last four months. The BIOMSS index was average. The national average of maximum VCI index was 0.87, and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) increased by 38% as compared to the recent five-year average.

According to the national NDVI development graphs, crop conditions were above average throughout the monitoring period on about 25.9% of the cropland, mainly in the provinces of Khuzestan, Fars, North Khorasan, and Razavi Khorasan in the west and north-eastern regions. 23.6% of the cropland showed close-to-average crop conditions. On 32.2% of the cropland, conditions were below average from January to February, and recovered to above average between mid-March and late April. The remaining croplands experienced below-average crop conditions throughout the monitoring period. Affected regions were mainly located in the north-west and north. They  included the provinces of West Azarbaijan, East Azarbaijan, Ardebil, Gilan, and Mazandaran.

Overall, the conditions for the winter crops are favorable.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Iran, among which two are relevant for crop cultivation. The two regions are referred to as the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north (104), and the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains (103).

In the Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region, NDVI profiles show a  similar change of patterns to that of the whole country. The accumulated rainfall was 351 mm (47% above average), while temperature (TEMP, -0.5°C) and radiation (RADPAR, -6%) were below average. The influence of radiation and temperature exceeded that of rainfall, which resulted in a decrease of BIOMSS by 5%. CALF rose 35%. The average VCIx (0.88) indicates promising crop conditions. The outcome for winter crops of this region is estimated to be favorable.

Crop conditions in the Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region were overall above the five-year average during this monitoring season. This region received slightly less sunshine (RADPAR, -3%), but rainfall was higher (RAIN, +32%) and totalled 205 mm during this monitoring period. The temperatures (TEMP, -0.5°C) were slightly below average. BIOMSS increased by 23%. The CALF increased by 41% compared to the five-year average, and the national VCIx (0.90) was quite high, indicating the highly favorable outlook for winter crops in this region.

Figure 3.21 Iran’s crop condition, January - April 2020

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI     (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA          (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series temperature profile                        (g) Time series rainfall profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Semi-arid to sub-tropical hills of the west and north region (left) and Arid Red Sea coastal low hills and plains region (right))

Table 3.33 Iran’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2020

Table 3.34 Iran’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's value and departure from 5YA/15YA, January - April 2020