This reporting period covers the main growing season of winter wheat, sown between October and December.  

Generally, according to the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were close to the average of the past five years from January to late March, but below average in April. The agro-climatic indicators of RADPAR and TEMP were above average: RADPAR +8%, and TEMP +0.6°C, while RAIN was below average by 43%, which led to a 5% decrease in BIOMSS compared with the 15-year average, and VCIx was 0.84. Some spatial and temporal detail is provided by the NDVI clusters: NDVI was above average throughout the monitoring period on 19.2% of arable land, and below average on 15.8%, mainly in Northern Italy. The VCIx ranged between 0.5-0.8. In Eastern Italy (about 17.5% of arable land) NDVI was below average from January to mid-April and above average in late April. The VCIx was between 0.8 to 1.0. About 18.1% of arable land was above average from January to February and below average from March to April mainly in Western and Southern Italy. A majority of about 29.3% arable land in Northern and Central Italy was below average in January and April, but then above average in February and March. The overall crop conditions in the country are below but close to average.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, four sub-national regions can be distinguished for Italy: Eastern Italy, Po Valley, Islands and Western Italy. The index of cultivated arable land (CALF) in all sub-regions was the same as the 5-year average.

Eastern Italy experienced below-average rainfall (RAIN -39%) and above-average RADPAR (+11%) and TEMP (+0.3°C). As a consequence, BIOMSS decreased by 9% compared with the averages (15YA). VCIx was 0.88. The crop condition development graph indicates that NDVI reached the average of 5 years in early March and late April, but was below the 5-year average for the rest of the monitoring period.  Below average production is expected.

Crop production in Po Valley was affected by low rainfall, with RAIN down by 44% compared to average, above average TEMP (+1.0°C) and RADPAR(+10%). BIOMSS was below the 15YA by 7% and VCIx reached 0.79. The crop condition development graph indicates that the crop conditions were above average from January to early March, and below average from mid-March to April. According to the agro-climatic indicators, below average output is expected.

The Islands recorded below-average precipitation (RAIN -47%) and TEMP (+0.3°C) and RADPAR (+2%) were above average. BIOMSS decreased by 3% compared with the average (15YA). VCIx was 0.89. NDVI was close to average throughout the monitoring period. The crop production in this region is expected to be below but close to average.

In Western Italy, RAIN was 42% below average (RAIN -42%). RADPAR(+10%) and TEMP(+0.3°C) were above average, which resulted in a biomass production potential decrease in this region (BIOMSS -5%). The NDVI reached an average level from January to mid-March, and was below average from late March to April. VCIx reached 0.86. CropWatch expects a below-average production.

Overall, prospects for winter wheat are slightly below normal.

Figure3.24. Italy crop condition, January-April 2020

Figure3.24a. Italy phenology of major crops

Figure3.24b. Italy national level crop condition development graph based on NDVI,comparing the January -April 2020 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

Figure3.24c. Italy maximum VCI for January -April 2020 by pixel

Figure3.24d. Italy spatial NDVI patterns up to April 2020 according to local cropping patterns and compared to 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

Figure3.24f. East coast (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.24g. Po Valley (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.24h. Islands (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure3.24i. Western Italy (Italy) crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Table3.45  Italy’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January – April 2020

Table 3.46 Italy’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA/5YA, January – April 2020