Kenya experiences two rainy seasons: the “short rains" and  the "long rains." Wheat and maize are two important crops grown during the long rain reason. Wheat planting takes place from May to June, whereas long rain maize is planted from March to April and harvested in October and November. Harvest for short rain maize, which is sown in October to November, falls into this reporting period.

Nationwide, rainfall (RAIN +120%) and CALF (+6%) were  above average  during this monitoring period. Both the short and long rain maize crops stand to benefit from the abundant rainfall. Favorable conditions for the coming wheat crop are expected for  Laikipia, Nakuru, and Trans-Nzioia. The temperature (-0.8 ℃) and RADPAR  (-6%) were below average. Total biomass production  (BIOMSS) was estimated to be 2% below the five-year average. The nationwide graph of NDVI development stayed above average until the end of the reporting period. According to NDVI clusters and the map of NDVI profiles, 93.2% of the country experienced favorable crop conditions. However, for the region around Nairobi, the pattern showed a sudden drop at the end of April. It is possible that the satellite images were affected by cloud cover, which may have caused this anomaly. The maximum VCIx reached 1.04. All the CropWatch indicators and NDVI profile show good moisture availability for land preparation for the long rain wheat and maize crops, and good growing condition for the short rain maize.  Based on all indicators, the crop conditions are generally assessed as favorable.

Regional analysis

Considering the cropping system, climatic zones, and topographic conditions we divided this country into four agro-ecological regions: The Eastern Coastal area, the Highland agriculture zone, the Northern region with sparse vegetation, and Southwest Kenya.

The Coast area includes the districts of Kwale, Kilifi, and Malindi. Except for the temperature, all CropWatch indicators were above average. The total rainfall was  661 mm, up by 92% as compared to the average, while TEMP was below average (-0.2 ºC). This resulted in an increase of total biomass production  (BIOMSS) by 7% as compared to the 5 YA. RADPAR was above average by 3%. The NDVI profile was also above the five-year average. Throughout the monitoring period, CALF was increased by 10% with a maximum VCIx of 1.15. Overall, in the coastal area, the conditions were favorable for livestock production.   

In the Highland agriculture region, the NDVI profile was above average during the entire reporting period. Rainfall was recorded at 957 mm, 124% above the 15 YA. Both the temperature (TEMP, -0.7ºC) and RADPAR (-8%) were below average. As a result, the total biomass production decreased by -6%. However, CALF was increased by 6% as compared to the 15 YA. The maximum VCIx value was recorded at 1.04. In general, the crop conditions were favorable.

The Northern rangeland area includes Turkana, Samburu, West Pokot, and Baringo. During the reporting period, a high amount of rainfall of 680 mm was recorded, (+130%) above the 15YA average. The agroclimatic indicators temperature (TEMP, - 0.5^oC) and RADPAR (-4%) were below average. The combination of the three factors led to an increase in total biomass production by 12%, which is favorable for livestock production, as this area is dominated by pastoral land. The NDVI based crop condition development was also above the five-year average. The maximum VCI was 1.08  and CALF at 97%. Overall,  the conditions were favorable for livestock production.

The Southwest of Kenya region contains the districts of Narok, Kajiado, Kisumu, Nakuru, and Embu, which are major producers of long rain wheat and maize. This region received high rainfall (1154 mm) with a high positive departure of 124% above average.  Except for rainfall, all the CropWatch agroclimatic parameters were below average. The average temperature was cooler than average (-2.0^oC) and RADPAR was also below average (-5%). This resulted in a reduction of total biomass production (BIOMSS, -8%). CALF remained constant. The NDVI‐based crop condition development was above the five-year average during the reporting period. A maximum VCI value of 0.98 was recorded. In general, based on the above indicators and fluctuations of the NDVI profile over time, the crop conditions were favorable for the southwest of Kenya.

                                                Figure 3.24 Kenya's crop condition, January - April 2020

                                                                             (a) Phenology of major crops

      (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                          (c) Maximum VCI

   (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                         (e) NDVI profile

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                              (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (coast(left) and Highland agriculture zone (right))

(i) crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern rangelands (left) and Southwest (right))

Table 3.39 Kenya's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January – April 2020 

Table 3.40 Kenya's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA/15YA, January – April 2020