This reporting period for January to April covers the main growing period of winter wheat, which had reached the early grainfilling stage in late April. Maize was sown in February.  Rainfall was 21% below the average while the temperature was 0.7°C above the average. In addition, rainfall was poorly distributed. Conditions were very dry from January to mid-March. After that, above average rains were observed.  The estimated RADPAR was slightly above the average (+0.1%), while the BIOMSS was reduced  (-12%) as a result of the lack of rain. The CALF was below the average by 2% with a medium VCIx at 0.67. The nation-wide NDVI-based crop development graph shows that the conditions of the crops initially were around the average and then got worse and stayed below the 5YA until the end of the reporting period. The NDVI profile map indicates that the conditions of about 24% of cultivated areas were above average. These areas were located in the north of the country. In all other parts, NDVI had dropped to below average levels at some point during the growth cycle. The south was most hit by the drought, where 21% of the area was below average throughout the entire monitoring period.   Nationwide, the estimated VCIx was moderate (0.67). All in all, crop conditions were very poor in the south but a bit more favorable in the north.

Regional Analysis

Based on the cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, four sub-national agro-ecological regions (AEZs) can be distinguished for Morocco. Only three of them are relevant for crops: Sub-humid northern highlands including central Centre-Nord Region and northern Centre-Sud, Warm semi-arid zone covering the regions of North-Oriental and the broad Tensift Region, and Warm sub-humid zone of the Nord-Ouest Region.

The agroclimatic indicators for the three AEZs show a reduction in rainfall (-9%, -28%, and -19%, respectively) while the temperature was +1°C above the average for the three zones. RADPAR was -2% and +1% for the first and the second zone respectively while it was at the average for the third zone. The estimated BIOMSS was below the average for the three zones: -14% for the first zone; -11% for the second and the third zone as a result of the lack of rainfall. The CALF was above the average for the first and third zones (11 and 6%, respectively) but 17% below the average for the second zone. Also, the maximum VCI was high for the first and the third zone (0.82 and 0.80%, respectively) but moderate (0.53) for the second zone. The NDVI development graph of the Sub-humid northern highlands and Warm sub-humid zones was above the average during January and February then dropped to average until the end of the season while for the Warm semi-arid zone, the NDVI development graph was below the average throughout the whole reporting period. In short, the Warm semi-arid zone was suffering more than the other zones due to low rainfall.

Figure 3.27 Morocco’s crop condition, January-April 2020

(a). Phenology of major crops.

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                       (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                           (e) NDVI profiles.

(f). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid northern highlands).and (g). Warm semiarid zones ) 

(h) . Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Warm sub-humid zones.

(i) Time series profile of rainfall                                            (j) Time series profile of temperature.

Table 3.45 Morocco's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2020

Table 3.46 Morocco's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January-April 2020