This monitoring period covers the generally dry winter months in Myanmar. Pre-monsoon rains typically start in April. The main crops being cultivated are second rice, maize and wheat. Most of these winter crops are irrigated. Maize sowing and therefore harvest occurs over a prolonged period, but its harvest was concluded by the end of April. Similarly, wheat and second season rice also reached maturity by then. This is in agreement with the declining NDVI curves. 

Compared to the 15YA level, precipitation (RAIN) increased by 7%. This was due to heavy rainfall in late April. Otherwise, the conditions were drier than normal. Temperature was a bit cooler (-0.2℃). Radiation (RADPAR) was also close to average (+1%). Potential cumulative biomass (BIOMSS) underwent a 26% reduction as compared to the 15YA level. The arable land was the same as the 5YA level and was not fully utilized according to the monitoring results in sub-national regions. As shown in the NDVI development graph, NDVI values were always slightly below the 5YA level for the whole monitoring period. Myanmar suffered from drought due to lack of precipitation until late April, which had a negative effect on crop conditions of second rice and wheat in temperate highlands and central dry zone.

Crop condition underwent marked spatial variations according to the NDVI cluster and profile maps. 31.5% of cropland showed zero NDVI departure values throughout the monitoring period except for late January, including central dry zone and part of Ayeyarwady Region and Shan State. 30.5% of cropland showed negative NDVI departure values that range from -0.1 to 0 during the whole period. These croplands were mainly distributed in Magwe Region and eastern highland, as well as the scattered areas in central dry zone. 11% of cropland in Ayeyarwady Delta displayed positive NDVI departure values for the entire period, while 8.5% of cropland in eastern highland showed negative NDVI departure values of less than -0.1. The VCIx map shows values between 0.5 and 0.8 over central dry zone and high values in Ayeyarwady Delta generally. CropWatch has assessed the crop condition of Myanmar during this monitoring period as close to average.

Regional analysis

Based on the cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three sub-national agro-ecological zones (AEZ) can be distinguished for Myanmar. They are the Delta and southern-coast, the Central plain, and the Hills.

The Delta and southern-coast region experienced a dry season with an extremely low RAIN (41 mm), a 70% decrease compared to the 15YA. TEMP and RADPAR increased by 0.1℃ and 3%, respectively. BIOMSS decreased by 42% and this was the largest decrease among the three sub-national regions. CALF rose by 3%. Most fields are irrigated, and therefore, NDVI was only slightly below average during the whole period. The maximum VCIx was 0.84 for this region. The crop condition was close to average in general.

The Central plain was also short of RAIN (85 mm, 23% above the 15YA) while TEMP (-0.1℃) and RADPAR (+2%) were near 15YA level. BIOMSS was 25% below the 15YA.  CALF (69%) was far away from full utilization, but only 1% down below average. NDVI was slightly below the 5YA level during the whole period. The maximum VCIx was 0.77 for the region. The crop condition is assessed as below the 5YA.

The Hills region had more RAIN (194 mm) than the other two sub-national regions, 31% above the 15YA. Temperature was lower (TEMP -0.4℃) than the 15YA level and radiation was average. Even with the cropland almost fully used (CALF 92%), BIOMSS was 20% down compared to the 15YA. The variation of NDVI was similar to the other sub-national regions. The maximum VCIx was 0.82 for the region. The crop condition for this region is slightly below-average in general according to the agroclimatic indicators.

Figure 3.30. Myanmar crop condition, January 2020 – April 2020

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Rainfall profile

(d) Temperature profile

图.X Click to edit

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA   (g) NDVI profiles

h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Coastal region (left) and Central plain (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Hill region)

Table 3.73. Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January 2020 - April 2020

Table 3.74. Myanmar agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA/5YA, January 2020 - April 2020