This report for January to April 2020 covers the growing period of rice and maize in the northern and central provinces of Mozambique. In the southern provinces, these  two crops were completely harvested, while wheat, which was sown in January only, was still in the growing period (figure 3.32a). Nationwide, rainfall showed a negative anomaly of 4%. With no changes recorded for temperature, RADPAR increased by about 2%. BIOMSS showed a decrease by 4% compared to the 15YA. Overall, the country recorded below-average crop conditions.

During this period, a significant drop in rainfall (-46%) and an increase in temperature (+0.9ºC) was observed in Inhambane Province. In Gaza province, the rainfall was also below average (-6%), whereas temperature (+ 0.3ºC) and radiation (+0.2%) were above average. These two provinces had already suffered from drier-than-normal conditions during the sowing period and a large fraction of cropped area had a low VCIx, with values below 0.8. The drought conditions in these two provinces negatively affected the crop production of the 2019/2020 agricultural campaign.

Maputo and Maputo city are the other two provinces that deserve special attention. They recorded above-averge rainfall of 616 mm and 658 mm (about 45% and 56% above the 15YA, respectively). Conditions were therefore quite favorable. A flood event which occurred in Sofala province (especially in the Nhamatanda district) in February 2020 had limited the production in that region.

The crop condition development graph based on NDVI suggests below average crop conditions throughout the entire monitoring period. The spatial NDVI profiles and distribution map show that 38% of the cropped areas (mostly in the Provinces of Tete, Zambézia, Nampula, and Cabo Delegado) were above average by mid-March, declining from that point till the end of April. For the remaining areas (about 62%), the crop conditions were below average during almost the entire monitoring period. Regardless of these factors, the CALF was stable and a maximum VCIx 0.89 was observed, with high values being recorded in northern Tete, Zambézia, Nampula, and Cabo Delegado provinces. 

Regional analysis

According to the cropping system, topography and climate, CropWatch had subdivided Mozambique into five agro-ecological zones (AEZ): Buzi Basin, Northern High-altitude Areas, Low Zambezi River Basin, Northern Coast, and Southern Region.

The sub-regions' development graphs based on the NDVI indicate that crop conditions in all agro-ecological zones were generally below the 5YA. According to the agroclimatic indicators, Southern region and Northern coast zones were the two zones with decreases in rainfall of about 15% and 5%, respectively. The decrease in rainfall combined with the increase in temperature limited crop growth in this region. Except for the Southern region (with BIOMSS near average), all other regions recorded a decrease in BIOMSS by 9%, 8%, 7% and 1% for the Buzi basin, Northern high-altitude areas, Low Zambezia River basin, and Northern coast, respectively. CALF was near average in all agro-ecological zones, except for the Southern region, where an increase of 1% was observed. As expected, the maximum VCIx was lowest in the Southern region (with 0.81) followed by the Buzi basin (with 0.88). High VCIx values were recorded in the Northern high-altitude areas (0.95).

Figure 3.32. Mozambique’s crop condition, January-April 2020                        

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                              (c) Maximum VCI

d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                 (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Buzi basin                 (g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Northern high altitude areas

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Lower Zambezi River basin   (i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Northern coast region

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI-Southern region

(k) National time-series rainfall profiles                                                                                 (l) National time-series temperature profiles

Table 3.57. Mozambique agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2020

Table 3.58. Mozambique agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January-April 2020