The monitoring period covers most of the winter wheat cycle from vegetative stages to harvest. It also touches the field preparation and the sowing of maize. Crop conditions were generally satisfactory from January to April. 

Pakistan had abundant precipitation (+43%), cooler temperatures (-1.5°C) and lower photosynthetically active radiation (-5%), as compared to the average for the same period over the past fifteen years. The combination of all the agro-climatic indicators resulted in BIOMSS exceeding the fifteen-year average by 11%. The fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) increased by a very significant 15%，which supports  expectations of favorable winter wheat output. As shown by the NDVI development graph at the national level, crop conditions were slightly below average in January due to cooler tempratures, then increased to average or close to the maximum of the last five year period from February to April. The spatial NDVI patterns and profiles showed that 25.6% of the cropped areas were below average, essentially in the north-eastern areas and the sporadic areas of the Center. Punjab and the Indus river basin, two major wheat producing areas, presented an above-average NDVI during the key crop growing period from February to April. Similarly the maximum VCI value of 0.97 for the whole country indicated good conditions at the national level. The values of agronomic indicators show favorable condition so far, and winter wheat prospects are promising. Wheat crop harvesting is completed throughout the Sindh and good yield levels are expected.

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions essentially based on geography and agro-climatic conditions: the Northern highlands, Northern Punjab region and the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind.

In the Northern highlands, RAIN was 38% below average. RADPAR and TEMP were low compared to the average (-8% and -1.7°C respectively). Accordingly, BIOMSS (-14%) was below average level. The region achieved a relative low CALF of 62% among the three AEZs, but still 33% above 5YA. The NDVI development graph shows above-average or maximum crop condition from February to April. A very favorable VCIx of 1.00 was confirmed.

Northern Punjab is the main winter wheat region in Pakistan. It recorded abundant RAIN of 424 mm (131% above average). TEMP was below average by 2.4°C, and the RADPAR departure was -7%. The resulting BIOMSS exceeded the recent fifteen-year average by 6%. From February to early March, crop conditions assessed through NDVI showed lower values than the five-year average, which was caused by rains, hail and windstorms, especially in particular areas of the upper half. They may influence harvesting activities and reduce yields in some regions. But overall the area had a very favorable VCIx of 0.87 and CALF of 90% (4% above 5YA), the projected wheat output is above average. 

In the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind, RAIN was significantly above average  (+176%), while TEMP was below average by 1.3°C and sunshine was below average as well (RADPAR -4%).The estimated BIOMSS of +34% as compared to the fifteen-year average is probably optimistic, even considering that the vast majority of crops are irrigated. Crop conditions based on the NDVI profile were close to or above average, together with an increase in CALF (72%) over the recent 5YA (+13%); VCIx at 0.94 indicates favorable crop condition. Overall, prospects remain favorable for the region.

Figure 3.23 Pakistan crop condition, January- April 2020

a) Phenology of major crops

b) NDVI profile

c) Time series temperature profile

d) Maximum VCI

e)  Spatial NDVI pattern compared to 5 YA                       f) NDVI profile

g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind)

h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Highlands)

i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Punjab)

Table 3.56 Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season value's and departure from 15YA (January- April 2020)

Table 3.57 Pakistan agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season value's and departure from 5YA (January- April 2020)