This period covers the spring green up of winter wheat and the beginning of the sowing periods for maize and spring wheat.

At the national level, NDVI stayed near the 15 year maximum until mid-March. Subsequently, it dropped to the long-term average. Precipitation was generally also above the 15 year average. Especially April was wetter than normal, but not in all parts of the country. Temperatures followed a similar trend: they were above average until March and then followed the longterm average.  

The main regions of winter crop production showed positive NDVI departures during most of this monitoring period. In Middle Volga VCI was above 1. In April NDVI departure was negative in Central Russia and Central black soil regions, as well as in some parts of Northern and Southern Caucasus. VCI for these areas varied from <0.5 to 1.

Due to drier than usual weather conditions, the yield of winter crops in Northern and Southern Caucasus may be lower than in previous years. In other regions of winter crop production the yield will be close to normal. However, conditions in the coming months will mainly determine the size of the wheat harvest.

Regional analysis

Southern Caucasus

    Rainfall was below the 15YA (RAIN, -28%), whereas TEMP (+0.9°C) and RADPAR (+6%) were above average. The severe rainfall shortage resulted in a biomass decrease by 1% as compared to the 15YA. CALF was 10% below the 5YA. VCI was 0.77.

    In February and March NDVI was above the level of the previous year and the 5YA. In April it was close to the level of the previous year but below the 5YA.

 Northern Caucasus

Similar to the Southern Caucasus, precipitation was also lower in this region (-24%) as compared to the 15-year average. Temperature was 2°C above the 15YA and  RADPAR was 5% above the 15YA. Nevertheless, estimated biomass production exceeded the 15YA by 3%.  CALF was 16 % below the 5YA. VCI was 0.74.

In February and March NDVI was mainly above the 5-year maximum. In April it dropped below the 5YA and the level of the previous year.

Central Russia

Precipitation was 17% above the 15YA. Air temperature was 3.8°C above the 15YA. RADPAR was 14% below the 15YA. Modeled biomass (BIOMSS) was 17% below the 15YA. CALF was also below the 5YA (-23%) and VCI was 0.88.

In February and March NDVI was above the 5-year maximum. In April it decreased to the level of the previous year which was close to the 5YA.

Central black soil area

Rainfall was 8% above the 15YA. Temperature was 3.4°C above the 15YA. RADPAR was 8% below the 15YA. These factors led to a decrease in estimated biomass (BIOMSS) by 9% as compared to the 15YA. CALF was 23 % below the 5YA. VCI was 0.75.

During the main part of the analyzed period, NDVI was above the 5-year maximum. In April it dropped to the level of the previous year and the 5YA.

Middle Volga

Precipitation exceeded the 15YA by 38 %. Air temperature was 4.3 °C above the 15YA. RADPAR was 8 % below 15-year average. Increase in rainfall combined with RADPAR shortage resulted in biomass decrease by 13 % compared to the 15YA. CALF was 2% above the 5YA. VCI was 0.92.

From February to March NDVI stayed close to the 5-year maximum. In April it decreased to the 5YA.

Ural and western Volga

Rainfall exceeded the 15YA by 34%. Temperature was 4.9°C above the 15YA. RADPAR decrease by 15% as  compared to the 15YA. Shortage of RADPAR led to biomass reduction by 4% as compared to the 15YA. CALF was 5% below 5YA. VCI was 0.97.

Except the drop in March, NDVI stayed close to the level of the previous year and 5YA.

Western Siberia

Rainfall was 39% above the 15YA. Air temperature exceeded the 15YA by 5.6 °C. RADPAR was 12% below the 15YA. Biomass increased by 11% as compared to the 15YA. CALF was 191 % above the 5YA.

In February and March NDVI stayed below the 5YA and the level of the previous year. In April it increased significantly reaching the 5-year maximum.

Middle Siberia

Precipitation was slightly above the 15YA (+ 6%). Air temperature was 3.6°C above the 15YA. RADPAR was close to the 15YA . Due to favorable agroclimatic conditions biomass increased by 19% as compared to the 15YA. CALF was 219 % above the 5YA. VCI was 1.

In February and March NDVI stayed below the level of the previous year and the 5YA. In April it increased, reaching the 5YA.

Eastern Siberia

Rainfall was 22 % below the 15YA. Air temperature was 2.6°C above the 15YA. RADPAR was 1% above the 15YA. Biomass was 7% above the 15YA. CALF was 48% above the 5YA. VCI was 0.88.

During the analyzed period NDVI was at the level of the 5YA.

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                 (c) Maximum VCI

                        (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                        (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern Caucasus (left) and Northern Caucasus (right))

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Russia (left) and Central black soils area (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Middle Volga (left) and Ural and western Volga region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Western Siberia (left) and the Middle Siberia (right)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Siberia)

                           (k) Rainfall index                                                                      (l) Temperature index

   (m) Temperature index for Southern Caucasus (left) and Northern Caucasus (right)

  (n) Temperature index for Central (left) and Central black soil regions (right)

Russia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January – April 2020

Russia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA/5YA, January – April 2020