Crop conditions in Turkey were below average during the whole monitoring period, but improved to close to average in late April. Maize and rice were planted at the end of the reporting period, while winter wheat was still at the late vegetative stage. Rainfall (RAIN, +5%) was above average, while sunshine (RADPAR, -2%) and temperature (TEMP, -0.3°C) were somewhat below average, which led to the below-average potential biomass (BIOMSS, -10%). The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) decreased by 3% and the maximum VCI was 0.77. 

According to the spatial NDVI patterns map, crop conditions were above average mainly in and around the provinces of Edirne, Tekirdag, Kirklareli, Balikesir, Manisa, Izmir, and Aydin in western and north-western Turkey and  in some areas including the provinces of Hatay, Sanliurfa and Mardin in south-eastern Turkey. The situation of consistently below-average NDVI prevailed in the eastern, central and west of central parts of Turkey, mainly in the provinces of Bolu, Bilecik, Kutahya, Eskisehir, Afyonkarahisar, Sivas, Bingol, Mus, Erzurum and Bitlis. Overall, the production of winter crops can be expected to be close to average if rainfall is normal in the coming months.

Regional analysis

The regional analysis covers four agro-ecological zones (AEZ): the Black Sea area, Central Anatolia, Eastern Anatolia and Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone.

In the Black Sea zone, the NDVI was close to and below average during the reporting period, except for early January. Temperature and sunshine were below average (TEMP -0.2℃, RADPAR -1%). The biomass was below average (BIOMSS -14%). The VCIx reached 0.78 and CALF is down 4%. The output of the crops will be below average.

Central Anatolia is the main grain production region of Turkey. It had below average NDVI throughout the whole monitoring period. Both temperature and sunshine were below average (TEMP, -0.3℃, RADPAR -2%). Rainfall (RAIN, +1%) was almost average, but the region had suffered from water deficits early in the year. The potential biomass production decreased by 11%. CALF fell 16% below average, which was the steepest fall among the four AEZs in Turkey, and the VCIx was 0.72. The condition of crops is assessed as average to below average.

In the Eastern Anatolian plateau, the NDVI was above and close to average in early and mid-January, but subsequently fell below average. This zone also suffered from lower temperatures and less sunshine (TEMP, -0.2℃, RADPAR, -5%). But overall rainfall was 14% above average. CALF decreased by 4% and the VCIx was 0.72. All indicators agree in describing the conditions as fair for this AEZ.

As shown by the NDVI profile in the Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland zone, the NDVI was average or slightly above during the reporting period. The temperature, rainfall and radiation were all slightly below average (TEMP, -0.3°C, RAIN, -1%, RADPAR -2%). The CALF was above average (+8%), which was the only positive deviation from the mean among the four AEZs of Turkey. Also, the VCIx is the highest at 0.88. Crop production prospects are estimated to be quite favorable.

Figure 3.39 Turkey’s crop condition, January-April 2020

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                             (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile                                   (g) Time series temperature profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Black Sea region (left) and Central Anatolia region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Anatolia region (left) and Marmara_Agean_Mediterranean lowland region (right))

Table 3.69 Turkey’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2020

Table 3.70 Turkey’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January-April 2020