The main crop of the Ukraine being monitored for this report is winter wheat. Maize planting will start in May only. According to the agroclimatic indicators, rainfall was deficient (RAIN 183 mm, -25%), with significant above average temperatures (TEMP, 3.5℃, +2.2℃) and sunshine (RADPAR 585MJ/m², +11%).  Although rainfall was relatively lower in this period, warm temperature and abundant sunshine still provided favorable conditions for crop growth until March. Estimated  biomass was above the 5YA (BIOMSS, 125 g DM/m², +5.7%). The other agronomic indicators include a fair maximum vegetation condition index at the national level (VCIx, 0.77).  However the cropped arable land fraction had decreased by 12% to 70%. Overall crop conditions were below average due to low precipitation starting in March. 

The NDVI development curve at the national level remained above the 5YA values until late March. In 14.4 % of arable land concentrated in the center-south  NDVI was persistently higher than average by 0.1 units throughout this period. For another  28.1% of the area located in Crimea, east and south west Ukraine, NDVI was generally below average. Low VCI values (<0.5) were also detected in this area.. 

In general, due to lack of precipitation, overall conditions for winter wheat are moderate. Attention should be paid to precipitation in the coming months.

Regional analysis

Regional analyses are provided for four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) defined by their cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are referred to as Central wheat area (184) with the Poltava, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad Oblasts; Northern wheat area (186) with Rivne, Eastern Carpathian hills (185) with Lviv, Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts, and the Southern wheat and maize area (187) with Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.

The Central wheat area recorded lower rainfall (173 mm, -26%) but significant increased radiation (573 MJ/m2, +10%) and temperature (3.2℃, +2.5℃). Warm weather condition benefited wheat growth and the biomass production potential increased by 6% (120g DM/m2) as compared to the 5-year average. Agronomic indicators show a low CALF (64%, -8%) and fair VCIx (0.78). Similar to national NDVI development trend, crop growth was persistently higher than the 5-year average until March. Production prospects are below average, mainly due to the drop in CALF and lack of rainfall.

The Northern wheat area  was also highly deficient in rain (193 mm, -24%), had higher temperature of about 2.4℃ as well as 10.2% higher radiation in comparison to 15YA. Weather based projected biomass was 5.3% higher than 5YA. This area had a moderate CALF of only 71% (down 12% below 5YA) and a fair VCIx of 0.79. The NDVI development curve was continuously higher than the 5-year average until mid March, when it dropped to below-average levels. Production prospects are below average.

The Eastern Carpathian hills experienced similar agroclimatic and agronomic condition as the above mentioned AEZs, with lower rainfall (-20%) but higher radiation (+12%) and temperature (+1.34℃). The area had fair VCIx (0.74) and relatively better CALF (88%), a value nevertheless 8% below average. The biomass production potential is down 7% and the NDVI development curve was above average until March and then dropped to below average. Crop production prospects are somewhat less favourable than in the two previous AEZs.

The Southern wheat and maize area was deficient in rainfall (-26%) with higher temperature of about 2.2℃ and radiation (+11.4%), which led to a 9% increase in potential biomass. Agronomic indices were average with both fair CALF (71%) and VCIx (0.76). The NDVI development curve dropped relatively less than in the other regions, but the crop condition in this area is still assessed as below average.

 Ukraine's crop condition, January - April 2020

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA          (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profile

(g) Temperature profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central wheat area)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Carpathian hills) 

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern wheat area)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern wheat and maize area)

Ukraine agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January - April 2020

Ukraine agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's valuesand departure from 15YA, January - April 2020