Winter wheat is the most important crop that was grown in Uzbekistan during this monitoring period. The sowing of maize started in April. 

Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, TEMP was above the fifteen-year average (0.5°C), and RAIN was above average by 20%, while RADPAR had decreased by 3%. The combination of these factors resulted in favorable conditions for BIOMSS (+8%), as compared to the 15YA. As shown by the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were above the 5YA at the end of this monitoring period. 

Spatial NDVI clusters and profiles show that 62% of the agricultural areas were in above average conditions from February to late April in most parts of Tashkent, Sirdaryo, Northen Samarkand, Namangan, Andijon, Ferghana, and Southern Karakalpakstan. The remaining 38% of the area were in below average conditions during the whole reporting period. Out of this, 14% were located in the south-western (Kashkadarya and Surkhandarya) in the Eastern hilly cereals zones. The other 24%  were mostly located in Karakalpakstan and the northern Aral Sea cotton zone. All in all, crop conditions were favorable for Uzbekistan.

Regional analysis 

In the Eastern hilly cereals zone, NDVI was above the five-year average during April. RAIN and TEMP were above average (21% and 0.5°C), and RADPAR was below average (-4%). The combination of the factors resulted in high BIOMSS (+5% compared to the 15YA). The maximum VCI index was 0.89, and the cropped arable land fraction increased by 45%. The crop condition was favorable during the monitoring period in this zone, and a bumper crop is expected.

The Aral Sea cotton zone was close to the maximum condition compared with the five-year average between January and February. However, the NDVI value was below 0.2 from January to April, which indicates the absence of crops in this zone where cotton is the primary commodity. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, temperature and radiation were above average during the monitoring period (TEMP +1.1% and RADPAR +2%), but precipitation was significantly below (RAIN -22%). However, the BIOMSS index was 21% above the fifteen-year average. The maximum VCI index was 0.80.

In the Central region, crop conditions were roughly on average. RAIN was below the fifteen-year average (-6%), whereas temperature was slightly warmer (TEMP 1.1%) and RADPAR was average. Nevertheless, BIOMSS had increased by 9% from the fifteen-year average, and the cropped arable land fraction increased as well (CALF +317%). In this region, the maximum VCI was 0.80. 

Figure 3.42 Uzbekistan’s crop condition, January - April 2019

(a). Phenology of major crops

 (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                              (c) Maximum VCI

                            (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                  (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Aral Sea cotton region (left) Eastern hilly cereals region (right)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Central region with sparse crops

Table 3.75 Uzbekistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2020

Table 3.76 Uzbekistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January-April 2020