This report covers the primary growing season, including harvest, for rainfed crops in Zambia. The dominant cereal crops are maize, sorghum and millet. This growing season was severely affected by rainfall deficits during crop establishment. After that, rainfall reached average levels. Harvest of the main cereal crops started in April. Maize production is forecasted to be above average; however, shortfalls are expected for maize production in southern and western parts of the country.

The CropWatch indicators at the national scale show a slight increase (+1%) in rainfall received, reduction in potential radiation (-3%) and biomass production (-13%). Accordingly, NDVI was also below average in January and February. However, it had recovered by the time of the peak of the season, when it reached close to 5-year average levels. Area under cultivation was 100% (CALF=100%).  Average VCIx was 0.93. It ranged from 0.8 to 1.0, with some exceptions in parts of central and southern Zambia experiencing maximum VCI between 0.5 and 0.8. These regions also experienced some rainfall deficits.

Regional Analysis

The analysis at the level of agro-ecological regions showed a reduction in rainfall received in the Luangwa - Zambezi Rift Valley (-6%), and Central - Eastern and Southern Plain (-5%), with the latter being important for cereal grain production in Zambia. The Western Semi-Arid zone received above-normal rainfall (+18%), and the Northern High Rainfall Zone also received above-average rainfall (+6%). However, for all these regions reduced potential biomass production were estimated, which could be due to the delayed onset of rainfall and reduction in radiation. Despite these deviations, the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) remained at 100% (no change). The negative departures in biomass and NDVI indicate a slightly reduced potential agricultural productivity in some regions of the country.

Table 1: Country's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January – April 2020

Table 2: Country’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA/5YA, January – April 2020

Figure A: Crop Phenology Map of Zambia

Figure B: Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure C: Time series rainfall profile

Figure D: Time series temperature profile

Figure E: Maximum VCI

Figure F: Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles