This reporting period covers the dormancy to flowering stage of winter wheat. According to the regional NDVI profile, crop conditions were slightly below the 5-year average but recovered to average levels in April.

On average, rainfall was above the fifteen-year average (Rain +36%), whereas radiation was below average (RADPAR -9%). Temperature was close to average as well (TEMP + 0.4°C). The resulting BIOMSS was 9% below average mainly due to less radiation. The cropped arable land fraction remained at the same average level as in the previous five years.

According to the NDVI departure clustering map and the profiles, values were close to average from late January to mid-April, except in Chongqing and neighboring areas in eastern Guizhou, which recorded very low NDVI due to low RADPAR (-15% and -16%, respectively). Average NDVI throughout the monitoring period was observed in eastern Sichuan and eastern Yunnan, where radiation was below average and precipitation above average (See Annex A.11). The maximum VCI reached 0.90, indicating that peak conditions were comparable to the previous five years.

The mixture of positive and negative departures of indicators shows overall slightly below-average crop conditions. Meanwhile, the sufficient rainfall might benefit the grain-filling of the winter crops if radiation is at normal levels in May.

Figure 4.15 Crop condition Lower Yangtze region, January - April 2020

(a) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

  (b) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                 (c) NDVI profiles

 (d) Maximum VCI                                                                                         (e)  Biomass departure