4.2 China crops prospects

(1) Winter crop production

Multi-source high resolution satellite images, agro-climatic and agronomic indicators as well as field surveys from winter crop producing provinces were integrated into the forecast of winter crop production.

The overall favorable weather conditions benefitted winter crops. The significantly above-average rainfall provided good soil moisture which was conductive for the development of winter crops. CropWatch puts the total output of winter crops at 132.33 million tons, up by 3% or 4.29 million tons from 2019 (Table 4.2).This is due to increased yield and expanded planted area at the national level.

Table 4.2 China, 2020 winter crop production (thousand tons) and percentage difference with 2019, by province

* Production of Taiwan province is not included.

Rainy and cloudy weather dominated the dormancy to flowering stages of winter crops in most of the winter crop producing provinces. The significantly below-average radiation in Anhui and Sichuan resulted in lower yield prospects compared with the 2018-2019 season. Low rainfall in Gansu, where most crops are rain-fed, hampered the development of winter crops after the wintering period and resulted in a 2% drop in yield compared with last year. Winter crop yields in all other provinces are forecasted to be above or remain at same level as 2019. As for the planted area, decreases were observed in Hebei and Shanxi, down by 2% and 1% from 2019, respectively. The reduction of winter crops planted area might be a consequence of the water-saving and sustainable groundwater management policy. Henan, as the No. 1 winter crop producing province, planted 5% more winter crops compared with last year. It is also noteworthy that winter crops in Hubei recovered from unfavorable conditions in March (see impacts of COVID-19 section) thanks to the end of the lockdown.

The total winter wheat production in 2020 is estimated to reach 122.24 million tons, an increase of 4.44 million tons or 4% from 2019. The national winter wheat area is 23,898 thousand hectares, an increase of 3% over the same period of last year. The average winter wheat yield nationally is 5115 kg/ha, up by 1% compared to 2019 (Table 4.3).

The two main winter wheat producing provinces of Henan and Shandong further expanded the winter wheat planted area by 5% and 3%, respectively. Although drought occurred in Gansu, the planted area of winter wheat still increased by 5% because of favorable rainfall during the sowing period last year. The increased planted area compensated for the impacts of drought and lower yield, resulting in a 3% increase of winter wheat production in Gansu. Since winter wheat is the dominating crop in all winter crop producing provinces, the inter-annual yield variations of winter wheat are very similar to those of winter crops in table 4.2. Yield dropped by 1%, 3% and 2% in Anhui, Sichuan, and Gansu. Increased yield in Hebei and Shanxi compensated for the reduced planted area and resulted in 1% and 2% increase of winter wheat production. The largest inter-annual production changes in percentage are observed in Jiangsu where both planted area and yield are above 2019.

Overall, CropWatch gives a good prospect for winter crop production in 2020. 

Table 4.3 China, 2020 winter wheat area, yield, and production and percentage difference with 2019, by province

* Production of Taiwan province is not included.

(2) Early rice planted area

Using the multi-source satellite remote sensing data of ESA Sentinel 1 and Sentinel 2 from February 1 to April 16, 2020, combined with the crowd-sourcing of in-situ data, early rice planted area in eight major production provinces of China were estimated. In short, the significant changes of ground surface before and during land preparation and transplanting were utilized to extract early rice cultivation area. The results show that COVID-19 had limited impacts on early rice cultivation at the national level. It is expected that the area of early rice in the eight main early rice producing provinces in 2020 will increase by 2.2% compared with 2019.

In 2020, the total early rice area is estimated at 5101.4 thousand hectares, an increase of 109.7 thousand hectares or 2.2% up from 2019 (Table 4.4). As the largest early rice producing province, Hunan province planted 1543.6 thousand hectares of early rice, an increase of 27.6 thousand hectares compared with 2019 (+1.8%); The largest inter-annual increase of early rice area in percentage was observed in Guangxi with a 7.6% increase over 2019. The cultivated early rice area in Guangxi is estimated at 942 thousand hectares, an increase of 66.6 thousand hectares from 2019. The planted areas of early rice in Fujian, Zhejiang, Anhui and Guangdong increased by 5.5%, 0.7%, 4.0% and 4.1%, respectively.

Hubei and Jiangxi provinces are the only two provinces for which we observed a decreased early rice planted area compared with 2019. In Jiangxi Province it has decreased by 1.3%; while for Hubei Province, affected by the outbreak of the COVID-19 and the complete lockdown, early rice area was ignificantly reduced by 10.6% or 18.2 thousand hectares compared to 2019.

Table 4.4 Early rice planted area for each major rice producing province in 2019 and 2020

(3) Limited impacts of COVID-19 on winter crops

In general, growth conditions for winter wheat at the national level were better than during the same period of last year at the time of the end of the lockdown in Hubei province. The favorable crop conditions coincide with the increased yield of winter crops as described in the previous section.

Over the major winter wheat-producing areas, 36% of the cultivated area was above the 2019 crop conditions, mostly distributed in the Provinces of Hebei, northwest Shandong, central and northeast Jiangsu, and Shaanxi. Only 2% of the cultivated area showed inferior conditions compared to 2019, scattered in the different provinces.

At the provincial level, winter crops in Hebei, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan and Anhui provinces performed well, with 75%, 62%, 54%, 43%, 35%, 23% and 21% of cultivated area above 2019’s conditions, respectively. Less than 3% of the area under cultivation showed crop conditions below 2019 for all provinces except for Hubei. It is noteworthy that crop conditions were lower than in 2019 in the Jingzhou and Puyang municipal region in Hubei Province, accounting for 8% of the province's winter crop cultivation area. Overall, the outbreak of COVID-19 in China had limited impact on the production of winter crops.

Figure 4.8 Crop growth condition in the major winter wheat-producing areas (March 1st to 10th)

Figure 4.9 Statistical proportion of winter crops condition compared to 2019 for each province in March