This section analyzes the import and export situation of  maize, rice, wheat, and soybean in the first quarters of 2020 in China.

In the first quarter, China imported 563.1 ktons of rice, down by 4.0% compared to the same period last year. The main sources of rice imports were Myanmar, Vietnam, Pakistan, Thailand and Cambodia, accounting for 25.6%, 24.4%, 17.4%, 14.3% and 14.4%, respectively, with an import value of US$293 million. Rice exports totaled 521.5 ktons, an increase of 8.8% over the previous year, mainly to Egypt, the republic of Korea, Papua New Guinea, Japan and sierra leone, accounting for 16.7%, 8.4%, 7.3%, 7.1% and 6.3% of total exports, respectively, with a value of US$214 million.

In the first quarter, China imported 1.27 million tons of wheat and wheat products, an increase of 22.6% over same period in the previous year. The main sources of imports were Australia, France, Canada and Lithuania, accounting for 36.7%, 27.5%, 11.5% and 10.3% of the total imports, respectively, with an import value of US$362 million. The export volume of wheat and its products was 55.9 ktons, mainly to the DPRK and Hong Kong, accounting for 71.7% and 26.1% of the total export volume respectively, with a value of US$21 million.

In the first quarter, China imported 1.25 million tons of corn, an increase of 27.4% over the previous year. The main sources of imports were Ukraine, Bulgaria and Russia, accounting for 88.6%, 9.0% and 2.2% of the total imports, respectively, with an import value of US$266 million. Corn exports were 1.2 ktons, mainly to north Korea (100%), with an export value of US$317.3 thousand.

In the first quarter, China imported 17.79 million tons of soybeans, an increase of 6.2% over the previous year. The main sources of imports were the United States, Brazil and Argentina, accounting for 43.9%, 40.7% and 12.0% of the total imports, respectively, with an import value of US$7.193 billion. Soybean exports were 27.4 ktons, down 18.2% from the previous year.

Trade prospects for major cereals and oil crop in China for 2020

Based on remote sensing-based production prediction in major agricultural producing countries in 2020 and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, which is derived from the standard GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project), it is predicted that the import of major grain crop varieties will increase slightly in 2020. The details are as follows:

Rice imports will decrease by 3.7% and exports by 8.6% in 2020.Affected by COVID-19 and "desert locust", the international rice market price will remain high, affecting Chinese rice import quantity. It is estimated that Chinese rice import will decrease marginally in 2020.

Chinese wheat import will increase by 10.2% and export by 2.6% in 2020. The global wheat supply is relatively abundant and the international price is low and fluctuating. Driven by the domestic and foreign price differences, it is estimated that the wheat import will keep increasing in 2020. However, affected by the epidemic, the international wheat price volatility risk is greater.

Chinese maize import will increase by 20.5% in 2020, and its export will be basically flat. At present, affected by the epidemic, the global demand for feeding maize is weakening, the overall supply and demand situation is easing with price going down. Domestic and foreign maize price difference is being at greater amptitude, Chinese maize import is expected to continue to increase in 2020.

Chinese soybean import will increase by 1.0% and export by 3.5% in 2020. As the differences between domestic and international soybean price is getting greater, soybean imports are expected to continue to grow. As the United States and China have reached an agreement on a Phase One trade deal, it is estimated that Chinese soybean import will remain high in 2020. However, the outbreak of the epidemic also brings uncertainties.

Figure 4.17 Rate of change of imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2020 compared to those for 2019(%)