According to the overall NDVI-based season development graph, the overall condition of crops was below average until the end of March, and comparable to the poor 2015 Belg season. In April, the situation improved and reached 5-year average conditions. So far, rainfall (which about coincided with Belg rains) was 19% below average with an average of about 300mm, which corresponds to water stress conditions. Temperature and sunshine were slightly above average (+0.6°C and +3%), but not sufficiently so to alter crop water requirements very significantly.The biomass production potential BIOMSS was 2% below average, which is consistent with a “normal” cropped arable land fraction and a VCIx value of 0.69. NDVI clusters and profiles provide additional spatial information about the condition of crops. While all NDVI profiles are currently at least average, they also show patterns of(1) improving situations mostly in Oromia (43.1% of crop-lands). This area has some limited patches of very good VCIx values; (2) a slight deterioration which started in February in western Oromia and Amhara(18.7% of crop-lands). This is where VCIx tends to be lowest, confirming poor crop condition from early season; (3) a more rapid drop in SNPP and adjacent areas in Oromia (10% of crop-lands), where VCIx is still rather high (0.8). Maximum VCI patterns do not really agree with the spatial NDVI distribution because they “remember” favourable conditions that occurred at any time since January. Among the areas that normally expect a fair amount of rainfall (200-250 mm)during the first quarter of the year, such as the Mendebo Highlands and the SE mixed maize zones, the deficit was low (-10%). It was higher (-19%) but not excessive in the SW coffee-enset highlands. In the western mixed-maize zone, where rainfall is usually more marginal (<150mm), the deficit was relatively higher at -29%. Altogether,the indicators show moderate crop condition. In the areas where they are poor, crops are less severely as during 2015. There are no indications so far that the main Belg season will be poor.

(a)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                             (b) Maximum VCI

(c)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                          (D) NDVI profile