The monitoring period covers the growing and harvesting stage of the rainy season maize and rice. Indonesia presented slightly below average crop condition from January to April.

Compared with average precipitation was slightly above average (+3%), while PAR displayed a decrease of 1%. The biomass production expectations were below average (-4%). According to the NDVI clusters, crop condition in Jambi, Kalimantan Timur and Kalimantan Tengah was below average during most of the period. Kalimantan Selatan, Kalimantan Barat and Sumatera Selatan showed good crop condition in January, which then dropped below the five-year average from February. National NDVI profiles also show poor crop condition in the monitoring period. The national NDVI profile was below average until the April. Altogether, considering the stable CALF value and VCIx at 0.78, Indonesia showed considerable resilience to El NIño conditions and CropWatch expects average output.

Figure 3.15. Indonesia cropcondition, January-April 2016

(a)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                        (b)Maximum VCI

(c)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                         (d)NDVI profiles