Crop condition fromJanuary to April 2016 was generally about average in Iran. During this period,winter wheat was still growing and barley was harvested. Accumulated rainfall (RAIN,-2 percent) and radiation (RADPAR, -1 percent) were just below average, whilethe temperature (TEMP, +0.9°C) was above average. The agroclimatic indices forthe current season result in a decrease of the BIOMSS index by 6 percentcompared to average. The national average of the VCIx (0.66) was just above averageconditions, and the cropped arable land fraction decreased by 5 percentagepoints compared to the its five-year average.

Crop conditions abovethe five-year average are mainly distributed in Ardabil, Golestan, and NorthKhorasan provinces of the northern region, and the Khuzestan and Bushehrprovinces of the southwest area. In the central-northern region from westAzerbaijan to Hamadan, extending south and southeast as far as Fars province,the condition of crops was below or close to the five-year average during thewhole monitoring period. CropWatch puts the wheat yield variation with 2015 at +0.4percent.However, cultivated area is estimated to drop 7.1 percent (an estimate based onthe CALF value of -5 percent in table 3.1), which will eventually result in a 7percent winter wheat production drop, in spite of generally fair crops.

Figure3.17. Iran crop condition, January-April2016

(a)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                              (b)Maximum VCI

(c)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                 (d)NDVI profiles