Cassava and yams are dominant crops in Nigeria, especially in the south, but cereals (maize and rainfed rice) play a major role in the southern-central part of the country where planting takes place from the middle of the current reporting period, from the end in March to April. Compared with the average, country-wide rainfall was slightly above average (+12%) with average sunshine (RADPAR +1%) and just below average temperature (-0.4°C),generally favourable VCIx (0.72) and average cropped arable land fraction. The biomass production potential currently exceeds average by 11%. NDVI stayed below average after late January but turned average and remained so throughout April. Crop condition was very close to average in 58% of the areas, i.e. essentially in the north where the season is still to start. As shown in the West African BIOMSS map (fig. 2.1g), the central Guinean Savannah belt enjoyed favourable conditions and BIOMSS at +20% exceeds the national average, especially in the west, according to VCIx. The area recorded a large excess of precipitation (+68%) accompanied by reduced sunshine (-2%). Less favourable but improving conditions prevail in southern Nigeria, in the humid forest zone where rainfall was 18% below average, with a correlated increase in sunshine of 9%; BIOMSS dropped 20% below average. Considering the very early stage of Sahelian crops and contrasting situations in the central and southern areas, the overall situation is assessed as at least average.

Figure 3.22. Nigeria cropcondition, January-April 2016

(a) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                                       

(b) Maximum VCI

(c) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                  (d) NDVI profile