The sowing of spring crops (maize, barley and other cereals) has been started while fully grown winter wheat and cereals are still in the field. Rainfall was above average  (+35.0%), while radiation decreased (-7%) and increase of temperature (1.8%) is seen. As illustrated in the section on Central Europe to Western Russia MPZ (Chapter 2.7), the increase in biomass potential (as described by BIOMSS) is large (>20%) in most parts of the country, while limited parts of East, West and North Ukraine had lower positive anomalies (10% to 20%). All together, most parts of the country enjoyed favorable conditions: at the national level, a biomass increase (29%) is expected. According to the national NDVI profile, crop condition in Ukraine is close to the reference five-year average with an average maximum VCI index of  0.77. According to the spatial NDVI patterns and compared to last five years North, East and South-Western parts of the country underwent favorable conditions. 

All together, winter crops may have suffered from unfavorable weather conditions during the planting period for winter cereals, mainly wheat for to be harvested in 2016. This led to a significant reduction in the area planted  and ultimately the total winter wheat production may decline. Spring cereal planting got underway in February, and areas are expected to increase from last year because of additional area vacant after condensed winter planting of cereal crops. Spring crop is above average and the current expectation is that crop production of spring will be above average.

Figure 3.30. Ukraine cropcondition, January-April 2016

(a)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                  (b)Maximum VCI

(c)Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                             (d)NDVI profiles