Unfavorable conditions during the wintering period in China exerted a negative influence in the prospects for winter wheat: production  is expected to reach 111.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons or 2.0% compared to 2015's bumper crop (table 4.2). Only three of the eleven major winter wheat producing provinces—Jiangsu, Anhui, and Shaanxi—show increased production compared to the previous year. A combination of increases in both yield and planted area resulted in higher production in Jiangsu and Anhui. The most significant increase in planted area (4.0%) was observed in Shaanxi, but the gain was reversed by a 2.6% decrease in yield. In Shandong and Henan—the top two winter wheat producing provinces— expected production drops to reach 4.4% and 3.2%, due to a  3.3% decrease of wheat planted area in Shandong and 3.8% decrease of yield in Henan.  Decreased production was also observed in Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Chongqing, Sichuan, and Gansu.

In China, winter wheat is the main winter crops output; over the past ten years it has accounted for 91% of the output. For 2016, CropWatch puts the total winter crop production forecasts at 121.8 million tons, 2.9% below the previous year’s production (table 4.3). Both yield and planted contributed to the decreased production. The total area under winter crops dropped by 1.8% due to the change of the minimum purchase policy. Farmers decided to switch from rapeseed to winter wheat; some even kept the land fallow during winter. The most significant drop of winter crop area occurred in Jiangsu (8.6%). The combined production of all winter crops nevertheless increased in spite of the lower planted area because of the high yield of wheat compared with rapeseed. The planted area of winter crops also decreased more than 2% compared to 2015 in Shandong, Chongqing, and Shaanxi. Decreased yield resulted from the unfavorable climatic conditions especially in Central China (See figure 4.4). Winter crop production is expected to increase in only two provinces (Anhui and Hubei). All other provinces recorded reduced yield due to continuous rainy weather, which interferes with yield formation and ripening. 

During early May, most winter wheat was between heading and grain-filling stage. Even If the agro-climatic conditions remain average until harvest, the production of winter crops in China will be below the 2015 record.

Table 4.2. China,2016 winter crops production (thousand tons) and percentage difference with 2015,by province

Note: * Nationaltotal production does not include Taiwan province.

Table 4.3. China, 2016 winter wheat area,yield, and production and percentage difference with 2015, by province