In the northern part ofthe region, winter wheat is currently close to its flowering stage, while inthe south early rice is at transplanting stage. Rapeseed in the region is beingharvested since early April. Overall, crop condition has been significantlybelow the recent five-year average from January to April, according to the cropcondition development graph based on NDVI. Fortunately, the condition improvedand is currently closer to average. The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators showthat rain exceeded average by 47 percent, whereas temperature was close toaverage (-0.1°C). Excess rainfall is paralleled by below average radiation(RADPAR, -8 percent). The cropped arable land fraction was below average (-5percentage points).The average VCIx value for the region is high (0.88), due tovalues exceeding 1 (which is the best condition ever during at least one dekad)in the west, especially southwest, but many areas in the north and east displaylow values, which are more significant than high ones. This is only partlycorroborated by the other indicators: The spatial patterns and NDVI departureprofiles displayed that about 24 percent of crops were continuously belowaverage, although 65 percent of crops were close to or slightly above average.Overall, crop production in the Lower Yangtze region is expected to be averageor below average.

Figure4.13. Crop condition Lower Yangtze region, January-April 2016

(a) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI