Overview

Tables 5.1and 5.2 present the current CropWatch estimate of2016 crop production, based on a combination of remote-sensing and trend-based projections.[1]The information will be updated in the two other quarterly bulletins to be published in 2016, including more actual information each time as it becomes available. Except for wheat, of which the largest share is produced in the northern hemisphere as a winter crop, only about 50 percent of the total 2016 production has been harvested or is currently growing.

Table 5.1. Summary of 2016production estimates by major aggregates (thousand tons) and variation (%,compared with 2015) of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean

                       maize                                            rice                                                wheat                                       soyabean

            2016      Δ%                                       2016      Δ%                                  2016      Δ%                            2016            Δ%

Note: Sub-total(CW) and Sub-total (trend + CW) lines include only China and the 30 major producers and exporting countries that are listed in Chapter 3. Sub-total (CW):Sum of productions of crops currently in the field or just harvested, and for which at least some actual remote-sensing information is available. Sub-total(trend+CW): Same data as the previous line, but including trend-based projections for crops still to be planted. Sub-total (others): Refers to 132minor crop producers, with estimates based on trend-based projections. Total: Sum of Sub-total (trend + CW) and Sub-total (others) lines. 5 major exporters and 5major importers: the total production of the top 5 exporters and importers in2013. When the European Union (EU) occurs in the list (e.g., among the wheat exporters or maize importers) crop production estimates for the sum of all EUcountries was used, using CropWatch estimates preferably to FAOSTAT-based productions whenever they are available. Δ%=Percentage change compared to 2015production. *, only three major soybean exporters (Argentina, Brazil and USA)are taking into account.

As illustrated in table 5.1, CropWatch currently estimates the production of 2016 to depart little from the previous year, with a slight 1percent increase for maize, 2 percent increase for rice, and 1 percent drop for soybeans, while wheat production is estimated to be almost identical to the2015 output. For major exporters, the output of maize and rice increased 2percent, while the volume of wheat and soybean are expected to drop 1 percent and2 percent respectively compared with the previous year. The major importers are expected to increase their rice production while wheat will stagnate. For both maize and soybeans, the expected drop (-1 and -2 percent, respectively) will be easily met by the increased availability of the major maize exporters and 2015soybean bumper production. It is also noted, as often happens, that the minor producers grouped as "others" collectively outperform the majorplayers. Both paddy rice and wheat increase 2 percent, and the production of maize—by now the preferred cereal worldwide—grows 3 percent. However, soybeanfor “others” deceases by 7 percent. In China, production drops are expected forwheat and maize (2percent)—in the case of wheat the result of environmentalfactors and policy changes, as well as for soybean (3 percent), continuing itsdecade-long trend. Rice is expected to increase 1 percent.

Maize and soybean are the crops where the largest disparityof condition appears between countries, while rice and wheat are far lessvariable. Sometimes also marked differences exist for crop performance within countries.In Egypt and the Philippines, no crop did well, and in both cases shortage ofwater can be blamed directly. In Egypt, in particular, the poor rainfall in theEast African highlands resulted in reduced Nile discharge, in a country where virtuallyall crops are irrigated. Countries that do well include Australia, in spite ofdrought conditions, India (even if the country was recently exposed to varyingdegrees of floods and droughts), eastern Europe to central Asia (Poland, Kazakhstan,and Uzbekistan), mostly due to abundant precipitation and above-averagetemperature, and Turkey, an island of favorable conditions while the remaining Mediterraneansuffered prolonged and sometimes severe drought.

Maize

With the exception of South-Africa (-32 percent drop due todrought; see also sections 3.2 and 5.2), maize variations stay within the -6percent (Mexico, probably due to drought in the south of the country) and +9percent (Ukraine) interval. Since the projections are based on 2005-2014trends, an overestimation is likely in Ukraine. Other large production growthsoccur mostly in middle-sized tropical countries (Bangladesh, Cambodia, Nigeria,and Ethiopia) where maize has enjoyed very robust growth recently. For Ethiopia(+5 percent) much will depend on the development of the current season and theexpected waning of El Niño conditions. Among the major producers, China wasalready mentioned with -2 percent. CropWatch estimates that Brazil with stay within1 percent of last years' production, while the United States will increase 2percent.

Rice

Most major exporters did well, with India and Vietnamrecording +2 percent output for the crop and Thailand a 1 percent increase.This is significantly lower than the annual growth rate of rice exports sustainedby Thailand (close to 5 percent) and by Vietnam (close to 10 percent), and canbe linked to the widespread drought conditions over southern and southeastAsia. The same also applies to Mexico (-9 percent). The production is expected tostagnate in Pakistan and the United States. Large increases are conjectured forBrazil (+12 percent) and Uzbekistan (+6 percent), a central Asian country thatis trying, with some success, to diversify out of cotton (see also section 5.3).

Wheat

Low production values for wheat are listed for Iran (-7percent), Argentina, the United States, and Ukraine (all at -4 percent), andChina (-2 percent). A production increase of 4 percent is expected in Brazil,Canada, and Kazakhstan, and an even higher increase (+5 percent) in Nigeria,where irrigated cold season wheat is produced in volumes close to 100,000 tons.India achieved an increase of 6 percent for wheat, but most of the grain is forlocal consumption. Among the exporters, Canada (+4 percent) and France (+2percent) compensate the estimated drop of 4 percent in the United States.

Soybeans

For soybeans, two of the major producers and exporters are expectedto drop (-5 percent for United States and -1 percent for Argentina compared tolast year) while Brazil is doing well (+2 percent compared to last year).China, as mentioned, continues the downward trend (-3 percent).

Table 5.2. 2016 productionestimates (thousand tons) and variation (%, compared with 2015) of maize, rice,wheat, and soybean

Note: Refer to table 5.1 for explanations about thelast lines of the table. Numbers in bold,including those in the "Sub-total (CW)" line were estimated usingremote sensing inputs and country statistics; others are based on the 2005-2014trend from FAOSTAT.

[1] The CropWatch estimates are based in part on current informationand enjoy a larger degree of confidence than the trend-based projections.