EI Niño has continued decaying during the first quarter of 2016. The eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have cooled gradually from September, 2015 to April, 2016 based on the Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) and the predicted temperature datasets of Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 (BCC_CSM1.1)  ensemble forecast results (See Figure 5.1). After May 2016, the middle and eastern Pacific Ocean temperature return to average conditions according to the China MeteorologicalAdministration (CMA) (http://www.scio.gov.cn/xwfbh/gbwxwfbh/xwfbh/qxj/Document/1473467/1473467.htm). Additional information about OISST andBCC-CSM1.1 m ensemble forecast datasets, is available from http://cmdp.ncc-cma.net/pred/cn_enso.php?FromYear=2016&FromMonth=5&Elem=SSTA_Patterns&Search=%BF%AA%CA%BC%BC%EC%CB%F7&product=cn_enso_ncc&source_from=

Figure 5.2 illustrates the behavior of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) from April 2015 to April 2016. During the current season, SOI has kept at a generally low value range: -19.7 in January and February, -22.0 in April, with a peak at -4.7 in March. Eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have cooled significantly in the past fortnight since April 26, and are now approaching neutral levels.

According to NOAA (https://www.climate.gov/enso) El Niño is still ongoing and is expected to continue through northen hemisphere spring or early summer. The heat content in the central Pacific decreased below average in March for the first time in a year. 

In the meantime, BOM and NOAA both issued a La Niña warning: conditions are favorable for La Niña to emerge within 6 months. In the next few months, CropWatch will keep a close eye on the development of El Niño, La Niña and the regions that shown sensitivity to this event.

Figure 5.11 illustrates the behavior of the SouthernOscillation Index (SOI) of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) fromApril 2015 to April 2016. During the current season, SOI has kept at agenerally low value range: -19.7 in January and February, -22.0 in April, witha peak of -4.7 in March. Eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures havecooled significantly in the past fortnight since April 26, and are nowapproaching neutral levels, which is also reflected in figure 5.12.

Figure 5.12. Sea surface temperature difference betweenApril and January, 2016

According to NOAA, El Niño is still ongoing and is expectedto continue through the northern hemisphere spring or early summer. The heatcontent in the central Pacific decreased below average in March for the firsttime in a year.

In the meantime, BOM and NOAA both issued a La Niña warning:conditions are favorable for La Niña to emerge within 6 months. In the next fewmonths, CropWatch will keep a close eye on the development of El Niño, La Niña,and the regions that shown sensitivity to this event.