5.2 Disaster events 极端灾害事件

Introduction 概述

According to a new international databaseof disasters assembled by a team based at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technologyin Germany, between 1900 and 2015 about 35,000 extreme events have caused thedeath of 8 million people[1] andeconomic losses equivalent to US$7,000 billion. Just over 50 percent of lossesare associated with water (floods and drought), which is consistent with recentinsured losses data regularly reported by the insurance industry. The authors ofthe study suggest that, in relative terms, the impacts of disasters havedecreased over the century, which is no doubt due to improved legislation andbetter preparedness and warning systems.

基于德国卡尔斯鲁厄技术研究所建立的全球灾害数据库，1900至2015年间，约发生3.5万个极端事件，导致约有800万人死亡，经济损失达到7万亿美元。超过50%的灾害为水旱灾害，这与保险业保险理赔的定期报告结果一致。受完善的保障体系与先进的预警系统的综合影响，近年来，灾害整体影响程度与范围有所减轻。

Th long-term decreasing trend in the impactof individual disasters, however, is reported at a time of increasing numbersof disasters and more intense extreme factors, as illustrated by the recentoccurrence of the strongest cyclones on record in different parts of the world.This includes Hurricane Patricia (October 2015, landfall in an areas with a lowpopulation density in western Mexico), as well as two 2016 cyclones: cycloneFantala (strongest cyclone in the south-west IndianOcean, April 2016) and cyclone Winston in the south Pacific Basin (February2016, see below). By sheer luck, none of them created any dramatic damage. CycloneWinston was particularly strong because it occurred under El Niño conditionsand in combination with anMadden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).[1]

从长期的趋势来看，单一灾害影响程度减缓，但灾害种类呈现多样化，极端事件发生频率提升，如最近在全球部分区域发生有史以来最强烈台风。包括发生于2015年10月登陆墨西哥西部人口稀少地区的飓风“帕特丽夏”；2016年4月份在印度洋西南部的强热带气旋——飓风“凡塔拉”；2016年2月南太平洋盆地出现的“温斯顿”飓风（见下图）。“温斯顿”飓风尤为强劲，因为它因“厄尔尼诺”和季节内振荡现象综合引起。万幸的是，它们均没有造成灾难性的损失。

The current El Niño, although atypical inmany respects, is also one of the most intense recorded so far. It affected andcontinues to affect hundreds of millions of people in three continents.According to the United Nations (UN) Office for the Coordination ofHumanitarian Affairs (OCHA), “responseplans have been completed in 13 countries, requesting some US$3.6 billion tomeet critical needs for food and agricultural support, as well as nutrition,health and emergency water and sanitation needs.”As some countries stillneed to submit their response plans, the overall impact estimate is likely toincrease. About one third of the funding requirement is currently covered.

当前的“厄尔尼诺”现象，尽管从多方面看并不典型，但仍是程度最严重的之一。它已经影响或持续影响三大洲约6千万人。 根据联合国人道主义事务协调办公室报道，13个国家已经制定的应对计划，需要约36亿美元资金满足粮食和农业，以及营养、健康和紧急用水和卫生需求。随着国家应对计划的增加，紧急应对资金整体将进一步增加。目前已筹集三分之一的资金。

Earthquakes 地震

CropWatch pays relatively little attentionto earthquakes and volcanic eruptions as their agricultural impacts arenormally limited, except where they involve the destruction of infrastructuresuch as roads and irrigation canals. A number of minor earthquakes were recordedduring the reporting period, including in Austria, Israel, Russia, Japan,Morocco, Indonesia, Chile, and Turkey, as well as continuing aftershocks inNepal, one year after the Ghorka earthquake, which was last year’s worstearthquake in terms of casualties.

CropWatch系统对地震和火山喷发对农业的影响关注相对较少，除非这些灾害事件导致农业基础设施（如道路和灌区）严重损毁。本通报监测期内，有记录的小地震主要发生在澳大利亚、以色列、俄罗斯、日本、摩洛哥、印度尼西亚、智利和土耳其，以及在尼泊尔廓尔喀地区地震一年后持续的余震。尼泊尔地震是去年造成伤亡最多、财产损失最严重的大地震。

Several recent earthquakes with Richterscale magnitudes (M) above 6 are worth mentioning, especially the 6 February M6.4 earthquake in Taiwan where about 120 people died. An M 6.7 earthquakerocked Manipur on 8 January, killing 11 and injuring about 200 in India andBangladesh and creating panic as far as Myanmar and China (Tibet), Bhutan, andeastern Nepal. The most serious earthquake (M 7.8) occurred on 16 April innorthern Ecuador. Local sources report just short of 700 deaths, more thanfifteen thousand injured people, and more than 200,000 affected throughdestruction of infrastructure, houses, and schools, especially in Esmeraldasand Manabí provinces. The UN and other humanitarian organizations have issuedan international appeal for emergency assistance of US$72.7 million.

近期发生数次6级以上大地震，如2016年2月6日台湾发生了里氏6.4级地震，造成120人死亡。1月8日，6.7级地震在印度曼尼普尔区爆发，11人死亡，受伤200人。孟加拉国以及缅甸、中国西藏、不丹、尼泊尔东部地区均有震感。4月16日厄瓜多尔北部发生最强地震（里氏7.8级），当地消息人士称，共造成700人死亡，多达1.5万人受伤，灾害波及超过20万人，对基础设施、房屋、学校造成严重破坏，受灾最严重的是埃斯梅拉达斯和马纳比省。经联合国和其他人道主义组织的多次国际呼吁，当前已经筹集7270万美元援助金。

Cold weather 严寒天气

Bad winter conditions have affected easternAsia and the United States. At the end of January (25 January), 85 people werekilled in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, and crops suffered minor damage (US$300,000). Onthe same day in Japan snow fell as far south as Nagasaki and KagoshimaPrefectures. Al locations (especially Taiwan) normally enjoy a warm temperateclimate, and winter conditions are rarely severe. In the United states, winter stormsJonas (24 January) and Juno caused floods and claimed about 20 lives in NorthCarolina, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Virginia. A state of emergency wasdeclared in Delaware, Georgia, Kentucky, Maryland (which observed a snow recordwith more than 70 centimeters of precipitation), New Jersey, North Carolina,Virginia, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and West Virginia, as well as neighboringareas.

东亚和美国遭遇严重寒潮袭击。截止至2016年1月25日，台湾高雄市有85人死亡，农作物损失较小（经济损失约为30万美元）。同一天日本遭遇强暴风雪，降雪南下抵达长崎和鹿儿岛县。这些地区（包括台湾）通常为温带气候，冬季十分寒冷。2016年1月24日美国“乔纳斯”和“朱诺”暴风雪袭击了加利福尼亚州北部、阿肯色州、肯塔基州、田纳西州和弗吉尼亚州，导致洪水泛滥，20余人丧命。特拉华州、佐治亚州、马里兰州（观察到的降雪记录有70多厘米）、肯塔基州、新泽西，北卡罗来纳州，弗吉尼亚州，宾夕法尼亚，田纳西州和西弗吉尼亚州以及周边地区宣布进入紧急状态。

Storms and cyclones 风暴和气旋

As mentioned above, two record cyclonesoccurred during the reporting period. Considering their strength, they createdrelatively limited damage due to their trajectories avoiding high vulnerabilityareas.

正如上文所述，在本通报监测期内，爆发了两次强烈的热带气旋。由于没有气旋行进的路径没有波及高脆弱性区域，损坏程度相对有限。

Cyclone Winston was active between 7February and 3 March. It formed east of Vanuatu and was characterized by acomplex track that affected Fiji, Vanuatu, Tonga, Niue, and Queensland, killingabout 50 people and causing damage for a billion U.S. dollars, the costliestcyclone to date in the South Pacific. In Fiji, the cyclone made landfall withsustained winds reaching just under 300 km/h, killing 20 people and affecting350,000, of which more than half were in need of shelter; estimated damage reachedabout US$200 million to crops and livestock, and about20 million to forestry and fisheries. In Tonga, reports indicate damage tobananas and the vanilla crop, a major foreign exchange earner. It is stressedthat the same area also suffered drought, so that Winston compounded thedifficulties of the agricultural sector.

2月7日至3月3日“温斯顿”飓风，形成于东瓦努阿图，呈现出复杂的活动轨迹，袭击了斐济、瓦努阿图、汤加、纽埃岛、昆士兰地区，夺走50人性命，造成约10亿美元损失，它是南太平洋损失最大的飓风。在斐济，飓风登陆后，风速接近300公里/小时，造成20人死亡，35万人受灾，其中过半人数处于无家可归，农作物和牲畜损失估计达到2亿美元，林业和渔业损失约为2千万美元。在汤加，报告显示飓风对两国主要外汇来源香蕉和香草作物造成破坏。还需说明的是，上述地区刚经历严重干旱，飓风使当地农业雪上加霜。

Other cyclones included Amos (late April),in the same general area as Winston, Alex (Azores, January), as well as thestrongest tropical cyclone of the south-west Indian Ocean in terms of sustainedwinds, Fantala, which affected mostly the Seychelles and to some extentnorthern Madagascar between 11 and 26 April. Compared to Winston, the impact ofFantala was very limited.

其他飓风还包括“阿莫斯”（发生于4月末），“力士”（又称“亚历克斯”,发生于1月份）以及西南印度洋最强的热带气旋 “凡塔拉”。其中“凡塔拉”主要影响塞舌尔地区，在4月11日-26日马达加斯加北部地区也受到一定程度的破坏。与“温斯顿”飓风相比，“凡塔拉”破坏程度非常有限。

Floods and landslides 洪水和滑坡

Landslides are reported from all continents,resulting from either heavy or prolonged rainfall, such as for example in thewake of cyclone Amos in Samoa. The most dramatic floods are those that affectedPakistan and neighboring areas in Iran and Afghanistan in March and April,killing more than 200 people, especially in the North-western Tribal Belt andin Baluchistan, but also affecting Pakistan-administered Kashmir and

Punjab. The impact was worst in KhyberPakhtunkhwa province (Peshawar).

由于强降雨、或持续降雨的影响，各大洲均有滑坡事件报道，例如萨摩亚的“阿莫斯”飓风导致的滑坡。在3-4月，巴基斯坦、伊朗和阿富汗的邻近区域遭遇严重洪水袭击，夺走200人性命，影响区域主要包括西北部落地区和俾路支，也波及到巴基斯坦管辖的喀什米尔地区和旁遮普省，影响最严重的是开伯尔-普赫图赫瓦省（白沙瓦）。

Other Asian floods include those thatoccurred in North East India (Arunachal Pradesh at the end of April) andmid-March in Bandung District, West Java Province, in Indonesia.

发生在亚洲的主要洪涝事件还包括4月末的印度东北部阿鲁纳恰尔邦、3月中旬的印度尼西亚省西部万隆区洪涝。

In South America, Brazil suffered fromlandslides and flooding in São Paulo, among other areas, in mid-March as aresult of torrential rainfall, burying people and causing some to drown. In NorthAmerica, in the state of Texas, floods caused about US$5 billion in damage.

在南美，巴西圣保罗地区遭遇洪涝与山体滑坡，在3月中旬的暴雨袭击，发生人员与屋舍掩埋丧命损失。在北美，德克萨斯州洪水造成约50亿美元的损失。

Finally, a severe storm caused havoc inUganda at the beginning of April, killing thirty and destroying houses inBuliisa District. Excess water in early March hit both north-east Ghana (Yendi)and Angola (Lubango in Huíla province), where flooding of the Capitão river destroyeda bridge.

3月初，强降水袭击加纳东北部（延迪）和安哥拉（卢班戈胡德拉省），洪水冲跨桥梁。4月初，强风暴对乌干达造成严重破坏，布利萨区约有30人死亡，大量房屋被损毁。

Drought旱灾

Drought was the most serious disaster interms of agricultural impacts during the reporting period. Initial analyses inprevious CropWatch bulletins reported about the South American droughtcorridor, where the shortage of water supply appeared clearly in the CropWatchRAIN indicators (e.g., figures 1.1 and 3.1 in the November 2015 CropWatchbulletin). Situations of concern are mostly reported from Guatemala and neighboringEl Salvador where about 1.5 million people are affected by the drought, which especiallyharmed maize crops, with about 1 million people needing food assistance. Interms of severity and numbers affected, however the brunt of the impact has nowmoved to Asia and Africa.

本通报监测期内，干旱是对农业影响最严重的灾害。上一期CropWatch通报中，南美干旱且严重缺水，CropWatch的降雨指数也清晰的证实了干旱的发生（如2015年11月CropWatch通报的图1.1和3.1）。本期干旱最为严重的区域是瓜地马拉和邻国萨尔瓦多，约150万人受到干旱的影响，尤其对玉米产量造成严重影响，约有100万人需要粮食援助。就严重程度和受灾人口而言，亚洲和非洲是受灾最严重的区域。

In Asia and the Pacific, for obviousreasons of less diversified crop growing conditions, some small countries areseriously affected, for instance Timor Leste, Fiji and Palau, as well as Papuanew Guinea. Some of them (Fiji and Timor) will now enter their dry season,which will worsen water shortages for a large share of the population (aboutone third) already affected by crop failures. Papua New-Guinea mostly enjoysyear-round humid equatorial conditions and diverse conditions brought about bytopography, except in the south-west where rainfall will decline from now andwhere more than one million people are currently impacted by drought.

亚太地区，由于作物种植较单一，一些小国家因干旱受灾惨重。例如东帝汶、斐济、帕劳群岛、以及巴布亚新几内亚。现在正进入干季的东帝汶和斐济，三分之一的人口因干旱饮水困难，甚至将导致作物播种的延迟。尽管巴布亚新几内亚气候湿润，地形条件有利于增加降水，但是本期通报内西南部地区降雨的减少，预计超过一百万人将受到干旱影响。

Among the large and populated countries,drought is mostly reported from Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam,and India. In Indonesia, where ACAPS ranks the impact as “low,” both plantingof the previous and the current crops was delayed, which resulted in about 1million people requiring food assistance. In the Philippines, about 3.5 millionpeople suffered from a moderate-impact drought that affected almost half of thecountry, most seriously in south Mindanao. Rice prices in March remained justbelow last year’s, which is generally attributed to the government’s policy ofpreventively increasing rice stocks. In Thailand, about one fifth of provincessuffered drought and water use was restricted for domestic and agriculturaluse. In Vietnam, about a third of the provinces suffered from water shortage,mostly in the southern-central areas, including the Mekong delta, the main riceproducing area. Drought and the resulting salt-water intrusion affected thetiming and rate of planting in about half a million hectares. Both Vietnam andThailand are major exporters of rice and other agricultural commodities, andthe availability of rice and maize may be affected. In India, national sourcesinform that nearly a quarter of the population was affected to varying degreesby drought and by heat-waves, some areas for the second year in a row. Water reservesare low.

在大国和人口稠密的国家，印度尼西亚、菲律宾、泰国、越南和印度遭受旱灾影响。在印度尼西亚，ACAPS简报已经发出级别较低的预警信息，当季和前一季作物播种延迟，约有100万人需要粮食援助。在菲律宾，全国过半地区约350万人遭受中度旱灾影响，最严重的地区为棉兰老岛，但即使如此，因政府增加了储备粮的储备，2016年3月份水稻价格低于去年同期值。在泰国，约五分之一的省份受旱，生活用水和农业生产用水受到严格控制。在越南，约三分之一省份严重缺水，主要在中南部地区，包括水稻主产区的湄公河三角洲。干旱和海水入侵导致约50万公顷农作物种植时机的延误。越南和泰国是水稻和其他农产品的主要出口国，预计水稻和玉米的价格将会受到影响。在印度，官方消息宣称近四分之一的人口受到干旱和热浪的影响，部分地区连续第二年遭受影响，水资源储量很低。

InAfrica, drought affects two areas: the Horn of Africa and the south of thecontinent. No major alarm is raised about northern Mozambique, Tanzania, andcrop-growing areas in Kenya, which lie between the two mentioned disasterareas. 

在非洲，旱灾主要影响两个地区：非洲之角和非洲大陆南部。但两个地区内的肯尼亚北部、坦桑尼亚和莫桑比克的农作物种植区影响很小。

In Ethiopia, more than 10 million peopleare currently facing or are at risk of being exposed to serious food shortagesdue to the worst drought in several decades. The resulting loss of more thanhalf of 2015 Meher crops (the main growing season harvested after August,mostly in the center of the country) results in a cost of close to US$1.5billion, according to the World Food Programme. The emergency is not planned todissipate before the end of September, particularly in some of the poorestparts of the country where livestock plays a central part in the economy.

在埃塞俄比亚，爆发的几十年来最严重的干旱，导致超过1千万人正面临或已面临严重的粮食短缺风险。据世界粮食计划署报道，2015秋播作物的50%面临减产（作物收获季在八月，主要分布于该国的中部地区），由此造成的损失接近15亿美元。在九月年底前，紧急状态不会撤销，特别是在畜牧业为主的贫穷落后地区。

In Kenya, Somalia, and the Sudans, thedrought impact in pastoralist areas is compounded by international and nationalmovements of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) caused by theSomali Al Shabaab movement activity, as well as inter-community violence(referred to as inter-communal violence, ICV). ICV is often associated withlivestock looting as cattle constitutes the basis of wealth in many semi-aridareas; drought and resulting loss of cattle can thus be seen as directlycontributing to the crisis.

在肯尼亚、索马里和苏丹的半干旱地带的游牧民地区，索马里青年党运动造成大量国际和国家的难民、无家可归者；牲畜是主要的财富，社区间暴力掠夺牲畜事件不断；旱灾造成的牲畜损失也被视为危机爆发的直接原因。

Refugees and IDPs have typically lost theirlivelihoods and cannot survive without assistance. They number about 600,000 inKenya; 1,100,000 in Somalia (including Ethiopians driven from their lands by drought;and 3,200,000 in South Sudan. Many of them are also in need of medicalassistance and safe water. Aid delivery is particularly difficult in many areaswhere infrastructure and governance have collapsed. In Somalia and South Sudan,more than 10 million people require assistance, as prices are increasing andfood stocks are already depleted. Due to fields being abandoned because ofinsecurity and drought-conditioned population movements, the crisis is unlikelyto dissipate in the coming months and before the next harvest is due later thisyear.

难民和国内流离失所者通常失去了谋生之道，没有援助无法生存，其中，肯尼亚有60万人，索马里有110万（包括从埃塞俄比亚因旱灾移居过来的人数），南苏丹有320万人。他们中的许多人也需要医疗与饮用水安全援助。在许多地区基础设施和管理已经崩溃，援助交付特别困难。在索马里和南苏丹，物价暴涨和粮食库存耗尽，共有1千万人要求援助。由于不安全状况和干旱灾害引起的人口变动，在未来的几个月内和下一个作物收获期之前，危机不可能消除。

In southern Africa, with the exception ofrecent fighting between RENAMO and FRELIMO in Mozambique, the region’s poorhumanitarian situation is more directly related to environmental conditionswhen compared with the Horn of Africa. UN analysts usually see Malawi as the mostseverely affected country in the region, among others because its responsecapacity is limited due to its weaker, mostly agricultural economy comparedwith Zambia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa.

在非洲南部，莫桑比克RENAMO和FRELIMO最近交火，与非洲之角相比，该地区贫困的持续与环境联系紧密。与赞比亚、津巴布韦和南非相比，马拉维国家农业经济较弱，它的响应能力有限，联合国分析认为马拉维是该地区最为脆弱，同时也是最容受到影响的国家。

Importantly, while food shortages are oneof the most dramatic impacts of the ongoing drought, the current crisis insouthern Africa—probably the worst since the 1981/82 El Niño—has wide-rangingand certainly long-lasting impacts beyond nutrition and agriculture. Foodprices have risen and low water levels in dams (notably Kariba on the borderbetween Zimbabwe and Zambia) has led to shortages of electricity, shortage ofdrinking water, a general slow-down of the economy, and loss of income,including in the mining sector where workers had to be laid-off. InSouth-Africa, many small farmers are going out of business.

旱灾影响最明显的结果就是粮食短缺，南部非洲当前的危机已超越了营养和农业范畴，具有广泛和持久的影响，可能比1981-1982年厄尔尼诺影响更严重。该地区食品价格上涨，大坝水位偏低（如在津巴布韦和赞比亚之间的边界的卡里巴湖），导致电力紧张，饮用水短缺，经济普遍放缓、收入减少，以及采矿业部门工人不得不下岗。南非很多小农场主已经失去营生。

Drought prevails in many areas in theregion (more than half the provinces in South-Africa, and 80 percent of thedistricts in Malawi). In Zimbabwe and Swaziland, every fourth person isdirectly affected. Severe malnutrition is reported from all countries,including Madagascar. With the exception of limited areas in South Africa, mostof the region grows summer crops between November and March. The emergencysituation is likely to fade only after the next maize will be harvested in2017.

南部非洲旱情广泛蔓延，南非超过一半的省份、马拉维超过80%的地区遭受旱灾。在津巴布韦和斯威士兰，四分之一的人口受影响。据报道，包括马达加斯加在内的所有国家人口均存在严重的营养不良情况。除少数地区之外，南非大部分地区在11月至次年的3月种植夏粮作物，在2017年玉米收获后，危机的紧急情况可能会所有消退。

[1]Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJOs), first described at the beginningof the 1970s, are large east-moving circulation cells over tropical oceans.They circle the earth and return to their original position over one to twomonths.

[1]The number of casualties is 5 to 10 percent of those due to man-madedisasters (e.g., war) over the same period.